Take a little trip back in time with me, if you will. The year is 2011. Cam Newton had just wrapped up an historic undefeated season as the quarterback at Auburn, leading his team to an undefeated season and a 22-19 win over Oregon in the BCS National Championship game. He’d won the Heisman Trophy and been recognized as the nation’s best college football player.
Newton, at 6-foot-6 and 247 pounds, with a canon arm, wide receiver speed and NFL-level accuracy should have been a no-brainer as a draft pick. The Carolina Panthers, in possession of that No. 1 pick, wasted no time in turning in their draft card and adding Newton to their roster as their franchise quarterback. Four seasons later they were one of the best teams in football, won 17 games and made a Super Bowl appearance.
Here’s the reason I bring that up. Not a single one of the big network scouts had Newton ranked as their top quarterback in that draft. In fact, I can’t find anybody that was on TV talking then that thought Newton was the best QB. There are some websites out there that should all feel pretty vindicated right now, but ESPN, NFL Network and the rest all loved another guy.
That guy was Blaine Gabbert. Yes. Blaine Gabbert was ranked, across the board, higher than Cam Newton.
Here’s Todd McShay.
Do you like Mike Mayock? So do I. Here’s his thoughts on his top-ranked quarterback of 2011.
Mayock didn’t have Newton as his second quarterback either. He had Jake Locker ahead of him too.
Mel Kiper? A lot of people hate him. I’m fine with him. Guess who he liked in 2011. Yep. It’s our good pal Blaine Gabbert. In Kiper’s defense, at least, he had Newton ranked right behind him on his “big board” at No. 15.
As bad a moment as that turned out to be for Kiper, it was nowhere near his worst call on a quarterback. For that we have to go back to 2007. Let’s take a look.
“Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that could be one of the elite Top Five quarterbacks in this league,” Kiper said. “…Once he’s under center, look out because the skill-level that he has is certainly John Elway-like.”
Youtube is a hell of a thing, but the internet saves every random thought. And while there’s not a Mike Mayock quote comparing JaMarcus Russell to John Elway, you could Google and find him saying that he had Mark Sanchez rated higher than Matt Stafford in 2009.
Of all the way to whiff on draft projections, no players are easier to be wrong about than quarterbacks. They are the most difficult addition you could ever make to your team and when you don’t have a good one, you really don’t have anything.
This has caused the NFL to have a quarterback problem. There are 32 NFL teams. There are not, by any stretch, 32 starting-caliber NFL quarterbacks in that same league. There aren’t 32 NFL-caliber starting quarterbacks on planet Earth right now. If you’re the 34th best quarterback in the universe right now you get run out of town on a rail. Ask Brian Hoyer.
So the search for the franchise guy is going to remain important and no one knows what makes it happen. Tom Brady was a sixth-round draft pick and he likes to cry about it still today. Kurt Warner wasn’t drafted at all. Neither was Tony Romo. Andy Dalton was a second-round pick, picked behind Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder and he was the best quarterback in the NFL last season until he broke his thumb.
Not only was Drew Brees drafted in the second round by the San Diego Chargers, they still didn’t like him when they did, drafting Philip Rivers a few years later and letting Brees walk.
Russell Wilson? A third round pick, selected behind Robert Griffin III, Brock Osweiler and Brandon effing Weedon. Do I need to look up McShay, Kiper and Mayock’s boards that year? I don’t think so.
I’m just as guilty as these guys. I look at their stats, I look at the film that’s available to me, I look at the college production/opponents and I watch their workouts. Has my opinion changed since I put my first quarterback draft rankings? Yes, but not drastically.
So to all but prove my original point that no one really knows anything about quarterbacks, I’m going to leave you with my revised Top 10 Quarterbacks list.
1. Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Yep, he’s still my top QB in this class. And to go ahead and Kiper myself here, I think he’s John Elway-esque.
2. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
I like Wentz a lot more as I’ve learned about him. I believe the word I used to describe the prospect of playing Wentz as a rookie was “disaster” and I no longer think that. I think he’s a potential NFL Star and could be another Andrew Luck.
3. Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
Jumped by Wentz, but I still see Jim Kelly when I watch his film and his workouts. Man, would he be a great pick for the Bills.
4. Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
He has all the tools, but needs some work. Luckily for him he might end up on a better team that can really develop his skills before handing him the keys.
5. Vernon Adams Jr., QB, Oregon
Too short they say. Watch him play. In the right situation this is your next undrafted NFL superstar.
6. Cody Kessler, QB, USC
Another guy knocked down the list because of his height. He’s the next Drew Brees if he gets his shot.
7. Jared Goff, QB, California
I just don’t see what others see in him. I see a lack of arm strength and accuracy downfield that will be exploited in the NFL. When I see Mayock compare him to the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan I scoff because I don’t see that at all. I see Blaine Gabbert 2.0. And the fact that Mayock compared Gabbert to Matt Ryan should tell you something there too.
8. Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
I’ve moved Hackenberg up one spot because of his potential as a developmental project. He has the physical attributes, but almost has to start over from the ground floor on his game.
9. Marquise Williams, QB, UNC
I see Williams as a career back-up but that’s not a bad thing. He has the skillset that can come in and win games off the bench and save a season when a quarterback is sidelined. Look at what Drew Stanton means to Arizona.
10. Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
Still No. 10 because I needed 10. Unless a team wants to put in half a decade on developing him, he’s a waste of a pick. The NFL needs a minor league system for guys like Jones but unless they start one, he’ll never see the field outside of this preseason.
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