The question is always a tantalizing one: Will a team outside the accepted and established power structure be able to invade the College Football Playoff? The odds aren’t good that it will happen, but if it ever does happen, it will represent a phenomenal story, one that will continue to be talked about for a long time. If any collection of teams can possibly make a very special kind of history, this is the collection that will rise to the surface in early December:
South Florida
The Bulls play a relatively weak schedule. None of their non-conference opponents are particularly tough. However, South Florida has a very realistic chance of going 13-0 and putting itself at the doorstep of something special. Quinton Flowers is a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, and after his 28-point second quarter last Saturday led South Florida to a season-opening win over San Jose State, Flowers has reminded people why he is so gifted as a signal caller. If the champion of the Big 12 Conference loses twice and the champion of the Pac-12 loses twice, the idea of an undefeated South Florida team sneaking into the playoff is not ridiculous. The Bulls would probably also need the second-place teams in the Big Ten and ACC to have at least two losses. A team outside the Power Five would probably need that in order for a power conference (such as the ACC with Florida State and Clemson) to not get two teams into the playoff. A non-power conference has to avoid that specific landmine as well.
Memphis
The Tigers could conceivably play South Florida for the American Athletic Conference championship in early December. Like the Bulls, the Tigers would want all of the scenarios mentioned above to happen. Beyond that, the Tigers and Bulls both need each other to have the best possible record heading into their game. There’s little chance either Memphis or South Florida can vault all the way into the playoff if the other team is 7-5 or 8-4 when that game is played. Both teams need to have at least 11 wins, and the game must be impressive.
Boise State
The Broncos are one of a few teams in the Mountain West Conference who need all the scenarios listed under South Florida… plus carnage in the American Athletic Conference which clearly knocks USF and Memphis out of the running. The Broncos then need San Diego State to have at least 11 wins heading into the Mountain West Championship Game. Boise State can’t get into the playoff if SDSU is carrying three or four losses when that game occurs. The margin for error is zero, but if Boise State can run the table and get several breaks, it is not outside the realm of possibility for the Broncos to make even more college football history.
Boise State starts the season at home to Troy this weekend. At last check, they were a 10.5-point favorite. They actually opened higher (at -12.5) but the line has dropped. We’ll see if they’re able to take care of business as the odds makers are expecting them to do.
San Diego State
The Aztecs have won the last two Mountain West titles but didn’t even get a major bowl bid. They HAVE to beat Stanford in September and HAVE to go 13-0 to have any real shot at a playoff spot. One loss in any circumstance will ruin their bid, just as it will for the other teams mentioned on this list.
The Aztecs have a relatively challenging start to the season but if they get through that, they can really make some noise. As mentioned, they’ll host Stanford on September 16th but they’ll also go to Arizona State – a supposedly improved Sun Devils squad – on September 9th. They’ll also go to Air Force on September 23rd. But that’s the hardest part of their schedule from the looks of it and if they get through that, they could very well be in the midst of the conversation.
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