The No. 7-ranked Virginia Cavaliers (20-5) look to extend their 15-game home winning streak in a matchup against the North Carolina State Wolfpack (13-12). Action gets underway at 7:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 15 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Cavaliers are hoping to rebound after their 63-62 loss to Duke on Saturday. Malcolm Brogdon was the team’s leading scorer, contributing 18 points. The Wolfpack, meanwhile, are coming off a 99-88 win against Wake Forest on Saturday. Anthony Barber led the game in scoring with 38 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
Barber has been on a tear over the last five games for the Wolfpack, averaging 32.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.8 three-pointers.
The Cavaliers could put on a ball-control clinic in this one. They’re ranked 16th in the nation at avoiding errors (TO% of only 15.5%). Additionally, North Carolina State forces the 23rd-fewest turnovers in the nation (15.6%). Moreover, the Wolfpack are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 20th in OR% at 37.2%. But the Cavaliers rank 23rd at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 75.0%.
The Cavaliers have gone 20-5 Straight Up (SU) and 11-12 Against The Spread (ATS). The most recent ten-game stretch for the Cavaliers has gone great. Over that span, Virginia is averaging 78.3 points per game, well over their season average of 71.0. The Cavaliers are an exceptional shooting team with a .495 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Virginia is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.54. Turning to the defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Cavaliers, who allow only 57.9 points per home game.
On the other side, the Wolfpack have records of 12-9-1 ATS and 13-12 SU. The Wolfpack will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their most recent 10 games, their scoring has dropped to 65.9 PPG, compared to 71.0 for the duration of the season. North Carolina State is one of the better rebounding teams in Division I. The Wolfpack average 40.7 rebounds per game, making them the 24th-best team in the country for that category. Moving on to the North Carolina State defense, the Wolfpack allow just 69.7 points per road game, ranking them 49th in the nation. North Carolina State has not committed many turnovers, averaging only 11.0 per game.
This is the first meeting of the season for these conference rivals. The last time they played, Virginia came out on top, bumping its SU record to 8-2 over North Carolina State in their most recent meetings. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. Virginia and North Carolina State each held the edge in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) one time in their last five meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – NCSU, ATS Winner – NCSU
Notes
North Carolina State averages 76.2 points per game this season. Virginia is one of the highest-ranked teams in points allowed, giving up just 59.8 points per game (ranked fourth).
North Carolina State scores just 71.3 points per away game (ranked 114th). Virginia ranks sixth in points allowed at home, giving up 57.9 points.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack rank 71st for their offensive rating of 111.0. The Virginia Cavaliers have a defensive rating of 97.5 (ranked 49th).
The Virginia Cavaliers have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking eighth in the nation with a FG% of 49.5%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the North Carolina State Wolfpack have a subpar 1-6 record.
The Virginia Cavaliers and the North Carolina State Wolfpack both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Virginia is 24th and eighth in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while North Carolina State ranks 264th and 228th in these categories.
The Virginia Cavaliers rank 12th with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.54, while the North Carolina State Wolfpack rank outside the top 100 (163rd) with an A/TO of 1.08.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack average 40.7 rebounds per game and are ranked 24th. The Virginia Cavaliers average 31.9 rebounds per game, ranked 332nd.
On average, Virginia makes 5.5 steals per game. North Carolina State has a winning 13-8 record when it gives up at least 5 steals.
