The No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (12-2, 1-0 ACC) visit Florida State to take on the No. 24 Seminoles (9-2, 0-1 ACC) in a matchup that pits phenomenal offense against stifling defense. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018, and will air on ESPN2.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 162.5 points with Florida State opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Prediction
The Tar Heels will be looking for a similar outcome after topping the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in their last contest, 73-69. North Carolina won the rebounding battle. The Tar Heels had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. four), defensive rebounds (35 vs. 30) and total rebounds (49 vs. 34). North Carolina rallied around Luke Maye, who was the game’s high scorer with 17 points on 7-for-18 shooting.
In the Seminoles’ last matchup, they were beaten by the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils, 100-93. Duke’s rebounding was their largest strength. The Blue Devils had more offensive rebounds (23 vs. nine), defensive rebounds (30 vs. 26) and total rebounds (53 vs. 35). Florida State’s Braian Angola-Rodas recorded 23 points and eight rebounds in the contest.
This meeting figures to be a shootout as two of the NCAA’s premier offenses battle. Florida State currently ranks 27th with 117.1 points per 100 possessions and North Carolina is 60th (113.1). Additionally, the Tar Heels, who rank 33rd in offensive rebounding percentage (35.7 percent), will go head-to-head against the Seminoles, who rank 315th in defensive rebounding percentage (66.2 percent).
North Carolina holds records of 12-2 straight up (SU) and 8-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Tar Heels’ 13 games that accepted bets, seven have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Florida State is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS. Just over half of Seminoles games have finished over the projected point total.
After the Tar Heels won the sole game against the Seminoles last season, 96-83, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Tar Heels had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (45.7 vs. 20.5) and had a much better free throw rate (0.356 vs. 0.179).
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Florida State, ATS Winner – Florida State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, North Carolina is 4-3 ATS with 4 unders and 3 overs.
Florida State is 3-1 ATS at home with 3 overs and 1 under.
Florida State averages 24.6 three pointers per game, which ranks 74th in the NCAA. North Carolina ranks 259th in three pointers allowed per game (26.9).
The Tar Heels rank fifth in rebounds per game (44.1) while the Seminoles rank 177th in rebounds allowed per game (36.5).
Florida State ranks 21st in assists per game (17.8) while North Carolina ranks 182nd in assists allowed per game (14.9).
The Seminoles rank seventh in blocks allowed per game (2.0) while the Tar Heels rank 152nd (4.9).
Florida State ranks 40th in steals per game (7.8) while North Carolina ranks 182nd (4.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, North Carolina is 3-2 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
Florida State is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Tar Heels’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.4, down from 13.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Seminoles have scored an average of 80.4 points per game (6.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.4 points per game (3.8 below their season average).
