The No. 2-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (19-2) and their 10th-ranked offense head to Louisville to take on the No. 16-ranked Cardinals (17-4) and their 86th-ranked defense. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 1 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Cardinals are hoping to rebound after their 63-47 loss to Virginia on Saturday. Raymond Spalding had a good outing, putting up 12 points, seven rebounds, and two steals for Louisville. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are coming off an 89-62 win against Boston College on Saturday. Joel Berry II had a good game for North Carolina, registering 13 points, six assists, and three steals.
It might turn into a shootout as a pair of the nation’s top offenses match up. Louisville ranks 10th in the country with 118.2 points per 100 possessions, while North Carolina is eighth in that metric (118.5). Also, the Tar Heels’s eighth-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 118.5) will face off against the second-ranked defense of the Cardinals (defensive efficiency of 89.9).
Louisville is a slim two-point favorite at home against North Carolina. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 151 points for this matchup. The Cardinals come into this game 17-4 Straight Up (SU) and 8-9 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a solid 7-3 SU record over their last 10 games, but have not fared as well ATS (2-8). The Cardinals have no trouble scoring as they rank 50th in the nation in offense with 79.3 points per game. Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for Louisville in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 14.6 offensive boards per game. Louisville’s defense has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game rose to 66.1 during that span, compared to its 60.2 season average. Louisville’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 5.0 three-pointers per game. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Cardinals, ranking 36th in the country in blocks per game with 5.1.
Over on the other bench, the Tar Heels have records of 8-11-2 ATS and 19-2 SU. The Tar Heels have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 14.0 offensive rebounds per game, 17th in the country. The Tar Heels are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking second in Division I at 1.79.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between the conference foes. Their previous game was a Cardinals victory, but the win was not enough to overtake North Carolina in the head-to-head series. Their record is now 1-4 SU. The Tar Heels also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 3-2.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lou, ATS Winner – Lou, O/U – Under
Notes
Louisville is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
Louisville is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games.
Louisville is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home.
The undefeated North Carolina is a perfect 8-0 SU against its conference, while Louisville is holding steady at 6-2 SU.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are among the highest-scoring squads, earning an average of 85.8 points per game (ranked fourth). The Louisville Cardinals rank fifth in points allowed with 60.2.
North Carolina averages 82.8 points per away game (ranked sixth). However, Louisville has allowed an average of just 55.1 points per home game, ranked second this season.
The Louisville Cardinals rank 10th for their offensive rating of 118.2. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a defensive rating of 98.4 (ranked 86th).
With 67.1 possessions and 1.182 points per possession, the Louisville Cardinals perform worse on both metrics than the North Carolina Tar Heels. North Carolina averages 72.4 possessions and 1.185 points per possession.
The Louisville Cardinals average an effective field goal percentage of 53.6% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a winning 2-1 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 53.6% or greater.
The Louisville Cardinals average 16.0 three point attempts per game, while the North Carolina Tar Heels attempt 17.0. When attempting 20 or more three pointers in a game, Louisville is 4-1 while North Carolina is undefeated (7-0).
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank second with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.79, while the Louisville Cardinals rank outside the top 100 at 129th with an A/TO of 1.13.
North Carolina, the 18th-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 41.5 rebounds per game. Louisville ranks 32nd with 40.7.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, North Carolina ranks 17th. Louisville ranks 136th in defensive rebounds.
North Carolina averages a forced turnover rate of 19.8% this season. Louisville has a 2-3 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
