The No.1-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels and No.6-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish get together For the chance to move on to the Final Four. Action starts at 8:49 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 27 and can be seen on TBS.
The Tar Heels come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, beating Indiana 101-86 in the Regional Semifinals. Brice Johnson was a key piece, recording his 22nd double-double this season with 20 points and 10 rebounds. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are coming off a 61-56 win over Wisconsin in the Regional Semifinals. V.J. Beachem led the game in scoring with 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength, as the productive offense of North Carolina (seventh in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 117.8) takes on the top-notch defense of Notre Dame (18th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 107.9). Also, the Fighting Irish’s 14th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 116.5) will face off against the 11th-ranked defense of the Tar Heels (defensive efficiency of 100.2).
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Tar Heels had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 101-86 win. Johnson put up 20 points and 10 rebounds.
The Tar Heels come into this game 31-6 Straight Up (SU) and 17-18-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Tar Heels come into the game with the ninth-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 82.9 points per game. The Tar Heels are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throw percentage, shooting a stellar .744 from the free throw line. The rebounding edge goes to the Tar Heels in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.9 boards per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than North Carolina, which ranks third at 1.64. As for the North Carolina defense, teams really have to fight for three-pointers against the Tar Heels, who have allowed only 7.0 three-pointers to opponents per game.
Across the court, Notre Dame has a SU record of 24-11 and an ATS record of 16-16-1. Notre Dame has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. The Fighting Irish are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .741 free throw percentage that ranks 36th in Division I. The Fighting Irish are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking 43rd in Division I at 1.34. Moving on to the Notre Dame defense, teams don’t seem to hit many three-pointers against the Fighting Irish, who are 16th in the country in terms of three-point field goals allowed at 270 this season.
The Fighting Irish’s win over North Carolina in their last clash couldn’t give them the edge in the head-to-head record, where North Carolina still leads 4-3 SU. However, Notre Dame leads the matchup ATS with a record of 4-3.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
North Carolina is one of the top-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 82.9 points per game (ranked ninth). Notre Dame, on the other hand, allows 70.1 points per game (ranked 107th).
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank seventh for their offensive rating of 117.8. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a defensive rating of 107.9 (ranked 18th).
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 70.3 possessions and 1.178 points per possession in games this season. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish average fewer possessions with 64.5, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.165.
Notre Dame has an average effective field goal percentage of 53.8%. North Carolina is a winning 2-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, North Carolina attempts 17.0 three pointers and Notre Dame attempts 19.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 12-0 while the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a formidable 12-4 record.
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.64 this season. Notre Dame ranks 43rd with an A/TO of 1.34.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.9 per game (ranked 13th). The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are outside the top 100 with 35.7 rebounds per game (ranked 200th).
Notre Dame ranks 170th in offensive rebounds, while North Carolina ranks at 73rd in defensive rebounds.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 18.6%, ranked eighth in the nation. When Notre Dame turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a tremendous 7-2 record.
