The No.1-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels and No.10-seeded Syracuse Orange square off for an opportunity to advance to the National Championship. Action gets underway at 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, Apr. 2 and will air on TBS.
The Tar Heels come into this game on a high note after beating Notre Dame 88-74 in the Regional Finals. Brice Johnson fueled the Tar Heels, recording 25 points and 12 rebounds to notch his 23rd double-double of the season. The Orange, meanwhile, are coming off a 68-62 win over Virginia in the Regional Finals. Malachi Richardson led the game in scoring by accounting for 23 points on 6-for-16 shooting.
Over the last five games, Johnson has been playing at a high level for the Tar Heels. During that stretch, he has averaged 19.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.0 blocks.
This battle pits one of the nation’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses, as North Carolina currently ranks fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency and Syracuse is first in defensive efficiency. Also, the Orange commit the second-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 18.4%), while the gambling defense of the Tar Heels causes the second-most (opponents’ TO% of 18.5%).
The Tar Heels have won both games against the Orange this season, including an 88-74 win the last time these two teams met. Johnson put up 25 points and 12 rebounds.
The Tar Heels enter the game with records of 32-6 Straight Up (SU) and 18-18-2 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS. The Tar Heels have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 67.5 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 83.0 points per game. The Tar Heels are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throw percentage, shooting an impressive .747 from the free throw line. The rebounding edge goes to the Tar Heels in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.7 boards per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than North Carolina, which ranks third at 1.66. The Tar Heels have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking second in the country with a .413 opponent field-goal percentage.
As for their opponent, Syracuse has a SU record of 23-13 and an ATS record of 20-15. Syracuse has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3. During the last 10 games, they averaged 80.9 PPG, above their 70.1 PPG season average. Moving on to the Syracuse defense, the Orange allow the fewest opponent three-pointers made in the country with 255 (7.0 per game).
In their previous meeting this season, North Carolina beat Syracuse, bringing its SU record to 3-2 over Syracuse in their most recent games. On the other hand, Syracuse holds the advantage ATS with a record of 3-1-1. North Carolina had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last five games. Syracuse has had the edge in all categories once.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 83.0 points per game, ranking ninth in the nation. The Syracuse Orange rank 23rd in points allowed with 64.6.
The Syracuse Orange have the best defense in the nation, with a defensive rating of 99.3. The North Carolina offense ranks a solid fifth, with an offensive rating of 118.7.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 69.9 possessions and 1.187 points per possession in games this season. The Syracuse Orange average fewer possessions with 64.9, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.080.
The Syracuse Orange average an effective field goal percentage of 50.1% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have a stellar 9-2 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 50.1% or greater.
On average, North Carolina attempts 17.0 three pointers and Syracuse attempts 23.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 12-0 while the Syracuse Orange have a winning 17-11 record.
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank third with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.66, while the Syracuse Orange rank outside the top 100 (117th) with an A/TO of 1.15.
Ranked 14th in the nation, North Carolina averages 40.7 rebounds per game. Syracuse ranks lower at 188th with 35.9 RPG.
North Carolina ranks 84th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Syracuse ranks 85th.
Though North Carolina is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 18.5% (ranked second), Syracuse has a solid 13-5 record SU when its TO% is 18.5% or greater.
