The No.5-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks take on the No.4-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels in the third round of the NCAA tournament at Veterans Memorial Arena – Jacksonville, FL. The game starts at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 21.
The Tar Heels edged Harvard 67-65 in the second round. Marcus Paige was the team’s high scorer, finishing with 23. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, are coming off a 56-53 win over Wofford in the second round. Bobby Portis scored 21 points and recorded three rebounds earning his 11th double-double of the season.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength, as the high-octane offense of North Carolina (26th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 111.5) takes on the stingy defense of Arkansas (25th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 152.9).
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Tar Heels enter the game with records of 25-11 Straight Up (SU) and 19-16-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS. The Tar Heels are an incredibly accurate shooting team with a .475 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The Tar Heels have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the second-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 41.5 per game, while the Razorbacks rank 103rd in the nation with 35.8 per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than North Carolina, which ranks 13th at 1.39. Transitioning to the North Carolina defense, teams really have to fight for open three-pointers against the Tar Heels, who have one of the best opponent three-point field goal percentages in the nation at .295.
On the other side, Arkansas has a SU record of 27-8 and an ATS record of 17-17. The Razorbacks are getting to the foul line at a high rate. Their 530 free throws made ranks 17th in Division I. Arkansas is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in Division I. The Razorbacks average 13.1 offensive rebounds per game, making them the 19th-best team in the country for that category. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Razorbacks. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.39. Shifting to the other side of the court, they average 7.8 steals per game, good for 31st in the nation.
This is the first meeting of the season for North Carolina and Arkansas. The last time they played Arkansas came out on top, but North Carolina still leads the head-to-head record, 1-0 SU,. Additionally, with a 1-0 record, North Carolina has the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – ARK, ATS Winner – ARK
Notes
Ranked 25th, the Arkansas Razorbacks have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 152.9 points per 100 possessions. The North Carolina Tar Heels rank 26th in offense, scoring 111.5 points in the same number of possessions.
The Arkansas Razorbacks average 70.8 possessions per game and 1.102 points per possession. The North Carolina Tar Heels earn fewer possessions with 70.0, but they score more points with 1.115.
Arkansas has an average effective field goal percentage of 50.3%. North Carolina is an underachieving 2-6 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, North Carolina attempts 13.6 three pointers and Arkansas attempts 19.2. Both teams have winning records when they have 20 or more three point attempts. The North Carolina Tar Heels sit at 2-1 and the Arkansas Razorbacks are 11-5.
North Carolina ranks 13th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.39, while Arkansas ranks 16th with an A/TO of 1.39.
Ranked second in the nation, North Carolina averages 41.5 rebounds per game. Arkansas ranks lower at 103rd with 35.8 RPG.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Arkansas ranks 19th. North Carolina ranks fourth in defensive rebounds.
