The North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils will square off on the grass of Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium. This Saturday afternoon game kicks off at 12:20 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to CHSS.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
In this Saturday Atlantic Coast game, Duke has been projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 11 points. The Tar Heels are also receiving +315 moneyline odds while the Blue Devils are -425. There should be some good live betting opportunities in the game, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55 points.
The less-than-stellar Tar Heels are 3-4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 13.1 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-2. The Blue Devils are up 0.1 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-5.
The Tar Heels are 1-7 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against ACC opponents. The Blue Devils are 6-3 SU overall and 2-3 SU in conference play.
The Tar Heels lost to Georgia Tech 38-28 in a contest where their defense allowed the Yellow Jackets to eat up the clock by running for 461 yards on 74 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Qua Searcy had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 38 rushing yards on two attempts. Offensively, the Tar Heels completed 18-of-31 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Nathan Elliott went 14-for-26 for 128 yards and three interceptions while Jace Ruder completed four-of-five for 80 yards and one touchdown. Antonio Williams (only 33 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Michael Carter (68 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack while Anthony Ratliff-Williams (four receptions, 103 yards) and Dazz Newsome (three catches, 17 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Duke Blue Devils just earned a 20-12 win over Miami (FL). The defense let the Hurricanes rush for 300 yards on 44 attempts, including two rush TDs. Travis Homer was a bright spot in the loss for Miami (FL), recording 133 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. For Duke, Daniel Jones completed 17-of-35 passes for 130 yards and one interception. Deon Jackson (113 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) led the running game as T.J. Rahming (five receptions, 26 yards) and Johnathan Lloyd (five catches, 40 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
North Carolina has run the ball on 48.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Duke has a rush percentage of 53.1 percent. The Tar Heels have produced 170 rush yards/game (including 172 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Blue Devils are averaging 164 rushing yards per game (119 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.
The Heels offensive scheme has averaged 236 yards through the air overall (252 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Blue Devils have recorded 233 pass yards per contest (252.8 against ACC foes) and have 22 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina has allowed 225 rush yards and 207 pass yards per game. The Duke defense has allowed 190.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 200.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Heels have given up an ANY/A of 6.24 to opposing QBs, while the Blue Devils are allowing an ANY/A of 5.78.
Passing-wise, Elliott is up to 1,369 yards this season. He’s connected on 134-of-222 attempts with six scores through the air and seven interceptions. He’s got a 5.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.58 over the last two outings.
The Tar Heels will likely try to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Anthony Ratliff-Williams (457 yards, two TDs), Michael Carter (360 rush yards, one receiving TD) and Antonio Williams (457 rush yards, five rush TDs, 80 receiving yards) have delivered in the North Carolina offensive scheme.
Daniel Jones has managed to complete 108-of-176 passes for 1,191 yards, nine TDs and five INTs for Duke. His ANY/A stands at 5.53 for the year and 6.76 across his past two games.
The Blue Devils also prefer to keep their running backs featured. In addition to Deon Jackson (77 receiving yards), Johnathan Lloyd (three rush yards, 344 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and T.J. Rahming (54 rush yards, 342 receiving yards, four TDs) have seen a multitude of touches lately.
When these two schools met a year ago, Duke emerged victorious by a score of 27-17.
Betting Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The North Carolina defense has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this season. Duke has recorded 19 sacks.
The Duke offense has lost five fumbles this season while North Carolina has lost eight.
The Tar Heels offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Blue Devils have accounted for eight such plays.
The North Carolina defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Duke has given up three such plays.
The North Carolina offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Duke has created 13 such runs.
The Tar Heels defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Blue Devils have given up 15 such runs.
The Over/Under for Duke’s last outing was set at 50.5. The under cashed in the 20-12 victory over Miami (FL).
In its last three contests, Duke is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three contests, North Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for North Carolina’s previous game was set at 64. The over cashed in the team’s 38-28 defeat to Georgia Tech.
North Carolina has produced 4.2 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
Duke has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.8 over its last two.
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