The No. 5 Duke Blue Devils (26-6, 14-5 ACC) take on the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-9, 13-7 ACC) in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tourney at Barclays Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, March 9, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils ATS Prediction
The Tar Heels come in on a high note after beating the No. 24 Miami (FL) Hurricanes in their last outing, 82-65. The Tar Heels made 18 of their 23 free throws (78.3 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.0 vs. 25.5). With 25 points on 9-for-12 shooting, Theo Pinson was the game’s leading scorer.
In the Blue Devils’ last matchup, they easily got past the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 88-70. The Blue Devils had a better free throw rate (0.123 vs. 0.075) and held the Fighting Irish to an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.5 (below their season average of 30.8). Marvin Bagley III was the game’s high scorer with 33 points on 15-for-23 shooting.
This matchup figures to be a high-scoring affair as a pair of the nation’s premier offenses go head-to-head. Duke currently ranks third with 120.8 points per 100 possessions and North Carolina is 20th (115.5). Also, the Tar Heels rank 277th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.213), while the Blue Devils rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.163).
Pinson has averaged 16.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.8 steals over the last five games for North Carolina.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Blue Devils won the most recent matchup 74-64. The Blue Devils had a better free throw rate (0.145 vs. 0.057) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.524 vs. 0.429). Bagley III put up a double-double in the victory with 21 points and 15 rebounds.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – North Carolina, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Duke ranks eighth in assists per game (17.7) while North Carolina ranks 212th in assists allowed per game (14.6).
The Blue Devils rank 13th in blocks per game (5.3) while the Tar Heels rank 198th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Duke ranks 145th in three pointers attempted per game (21.9) while North Carolina ranks 281st in three pointers allowed per game (25.7).
The Blue Devils rank 35th in steals per game (7.5) while the Tar Heels rank 170th (5.6).
North Carolina averages 42.9 rebounds per game, which ranks first in the NCAA. Duke ranks 49th in rebounds allowed per game (32.5).
Bettings Trends:
The Tar Heels’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, down from 9.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Blue Devils have scored an average of 73.4 points per game (11.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 59.6 points per game (9.9 below their season average).
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