This has the makings of a shootout as the North Carolina Tar Heels (10-1) meet the North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-4). A player to watch in this matchup is the ACC’s second-leading rusher, Elijah Hood (1,060 yards, 14 TDs). It starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov 28 and will air on ABC and ESP2.
North Carolina State beat Syracuse 42-29 last week. Nyheim Hines had a big game, racking up 139 total yards and a TD. He got most of his yards running the ball, registering 70 yards and a TD. Jumichael Ramos also had a big day, contributing 83 receiving yards and a TD on eight receptions. North Carolina also got the win in last week’s performance, picking up a close victory against Virginia Tech 30-27. Elijah Hood had an outstanding performance on the ground for the Tar Heels, rushing for 115 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. Brandon Fritts finished with 63 receiving yards on three receptions.
The Wolfpack, a six-point underdog, will be looking to defend their home field when North Carolina comes to town.
Heading into Week 13 of the college football season, the Wolfpack are 7-4 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5 Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, North Carolina State is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Look for North Carolina State to take advantage of an inferior run defense. The Tar Heels are 102nd in the country against the run, giving up 199.7 rushing yards per game. As for the North Carolina State defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Tar Heels will be matching up against a stout North Carolina State pass defense, which only allowed 239.4 passing yards over their last five matchups. Based on an average time of possession of 33:52 per game, which ranks 12th in the nation, look for North Carolina State to control the clock.
Across the field, the Tar Heels have a record of 7-4 ATS and 10-1 SU. The Tar Heels went 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. The Wolfpack may be catching the Tar Heels at the wrong time. They have found their groove on offense in the past five games, averaging 500.4 total yards during that span. Shifting to the other side of the ball, the North Carolina defense can dominate if it takes advantage of some favorable matchups. Opponents have had fits with North Carolina’s 17th-ranked pass defense, which gives up just 184.4 passing yards per game. The Tar Heels have a habit of pouring it on before they go into halftime. They average 13 points during the second quarter, ranking eighth in Division I.
Predictions: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – North Carolina State
Notes
North Carolina State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
North Carolina State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
North Carolina State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home.
North Carolina State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina State’s last 7 games at home.
North Carolina State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing North Carolina.
North Carolina State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against North Carolina.
North Carolina is 8-1 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. North Carolina State is 7-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
The North Carolina defense has forced an average of 2.1 turnovers per game this season, but North Carolina State is 3-1 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
The North Carolina State rushing attack is ranked 39th nationally, compared to the 102nd-ranked run defense of North Carolina.
