It’s a little ACC Conference action from Heinz Field when the visiting North Carolina Tar Heels get down with the Pittsburgh Panthers on Thursday night. The inner-conference match-up is slated to get underway on Thursday, November 9th at 7:30 p.m. EST. The mid-week contest can also be viewed on the ESPN Network. Sin City has set the Panthers as a -9 point favorite and the game’s total at 53.
Heading into Pennsylvania, the Tar Heels are trying to regroup after a disappointing loss to the Miami Hurricanes 19-24. Unfortunately, the loss was North Carolina’s sixth in a row and eighth overall. They have played tough in most of their losses but their record will cost the Tar Heels a chance to play in a bowl game in 2017.
The Pittsburgh Panthers have started to trend in the completely opposite direction than North Carolina. The Panthers have won two games in a row and are one away from reaching the .500 mark on the season. If so, Pittsburgh will be one win away from bowl eligibility. That achievement has to be considered a success since they were 2-5 just a few weeks ago.
North Carolina Tar Heels (1-8)
With the departure of NFL first-round draft pick Mitchell Trubisky and outstanding teammate Ryan Switzer, the offense hasn’t been all that great in 2017. In fact, the Tar Heels are ranked 99th in the nation running the ball 137.7 ypg) and 82nd passing it (206.6 ypg). Add those two together and you get an offense that is only putting up 21 points per game (110th).
Quarterback Chazz Surratt is doing his best to lead the North Carolina offense. The unit has been decimated by injuries so he has a lot less to work with than he’d like. Nevertheless, Surratt is doing what he can to keep his team competitive. This year, the freshman signal-caller has thrown for 1,284 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. When called upon, he also has run the ball effectively against opposing schools. Surratt has collected 151 yards and four more scores. Keep in mind, he is the third starting quarterback since the start of the 2017 campaign.
Two running backs team-up together to try to help keep their lethargic offense balanced. Jordan Brown and Michael Carter have combined for 171 carries for 862 yards with 10 touchdowns. Thrown in with Chazz Surratt, the duo is actually giving the Tar Heel ground game a little boost.
A lot of different wideouts have seen some action nine games into the season. Regrettably, no receiver has even caught 25 balls or recorded more than three scores. Anthony Ratliff-Williams leads the team with 336 yards and three touchdowns. Austin Proehl, son of former NFL receiver Ricky Proehl, was second on the team with 270 yards receiving. Last Thursday, he broke his collarbone and is also done for the year.
As bad as the offense has been this season, the defense has managed to do even worse. The back half struggles to stop any wide receiver/quarterback combination. The North Carolina secondary ranks 86th in the country, yielding 242 yards a contest. The front half is also horrible, allowing opposing offenses to run for 205 yards a game which is good for 110th in the nation. You’re just not going to win many games when your defense gives up 33 points an outing.
Pittsburgh Panthers (4-5)
The Pittsburgh Panthers have been hot and cold this season, but they are playing their best football of the year. As of now, they have won two straight games coming into Thursday’s contest. They beat the Blue Devils 24-17 three weeks ago and then came back and beat Virginia 31-14 two weeks back. They are coming off of a bye heading into this affair but it’s not much of an advantage as North Carolina is too.
In his last outing against the Cavaliers, quarterback Ben Dinucci was just okay. He threw for less than 200 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Luckily, they may not have to have him at his best to beat this Tar Heel squad. Overall, the backup signal-caller has tossed the pigskin for almost 900 yards with four touchdowns and four picks.
In the win over Virginia, the star offensively was probably running back Darrin Hall. The junior tailback carried the ball 25 times for 111 yards and a visit to the promised land. In 2017, he has rumbled for 475 yards with six combined touchdowns. The two Qs, Qadree Ollison and Quadree Henderson, are doing their share to keep the chains moving for the Pittsburgh offense. Together, the duo has dashed for almost 500 yards rushing with five more scores.
Whoever has been starting under-center, they have had the luxury of two decent reivers to throw the ball to. Jester Weah and Rafael Araujo-Lopes are starting to put together a pretty nice season for the Panther offense. Altogether, the two have snatched up 66 balls for almost 950 yards and five touchdowns of their own. They should have plenty of chances to build on those numbers against the Tar Heel’s porous secondary.
Speaking of terrible secondaries, well the Pittsburgh secondary is also one of the worst in the country. Through nine games, they are giving up 263 yards through the air (112th). Luckily, the front seven has been pulling their weight. The unit now sits at 57th in the country, allowing 161 yards of their own. In all reality, the Panthers aren’t much better defensively than North Carolina. Their average of 27 points surrendered is a testament to that.
Prediction
Las Vegas has the Pittsburgh Panthers as a nine-point favorite in the ACC match-up and that surprises me a bit here. I realize that the Tar Heels are 1-8 but they have lost some close games this season. Also, I don’t think the Panthers are the explosive offensive club that can really lay the wood to the Tar Heel defense. Likewise, Pittsburgh struggles to stop teams so North Carolina should find a few ways to keep the ball moving.
With that being said, the over/under 53 seems too risky to me. Both of these schools just flat out struggle to produce offense so I’m suggesting that my readers stay completely away from this total. The play here is to take the nine points with the underdog Tar Heels. I don’t think they will walk into Heinz Field and get their second win but I do think they will keep it close. Place North Carolina on your betting ticket to cover the spread and hope they keep in close in the waning moments of the fourth-quarter. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
To wager on this ACC match-up or any other game, head on over to BetDSI Sportsbook to get started.
Trends
The Tar Heels are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Tar Heels last 6 games overall.
The Panthers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.
The Under is 5-0 in the Panthers last 5 conference games.
Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
