The Western Illinois Leathernecks (7-10) will try to put an end to their eight-game skid when they match up with the North Dakota State Bison (13-7) at Western Hall. Action starts at 3:00 pm ET on Saturday, Jan. 23 and can be seen on ES3.
The Leathernecks are hoping for a better outcome after their 76-67 loss to South Dakota on Wednesday. Tate Stensgaard played well for the Leathernecks, recording 10 points, six rebounds, and one steal. The Bison are coming off a 79-74 loss to IPFW on Thursday. Kory Brown had a solid game for North Dakota State, recording 23 points, nine rebounds, and two assists.
Brown has been on fire over the last five games for the Bison, averaging 14.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.0 three-pointer.
The Bison will look to keep miscues at a minimum in this matchup. They’re ranked 28th in the nation at avoiding mistakes (TO% of 15.8%). Conversely, Western Illinois forces the 59th-fewest errors in the nation, with just 17.0% of opponents’ possessions resulting in a turnover.
Western Illinois is a slight underdog, with North Dakota State favored by one. The Over/Under (O/U) is 136 points. The Leathernecks come into this game 7-10 Straight Up (SU) and 6-7 Against The Spread (ATS). Below-average play has been the norm lately for the Leathernecks. In the last 10 games, Western Illinois has only averaged 66.0 points per game compared to the 71.8 they’ve averaged on the season. Western Illinois has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a stellar .745. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Western Illinois’s stingy defense. The Leathernecks are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 60.5 points per home game.
Across the court, the Bison have been a poor bet so far, with a disappointing record of 6-11 ATS. Their SU record, 13-7, hasn’t been quite as bad. The Bison are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 65.7 points allowed per game. North Dakota State’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 5.0 shots from the three-point line per game. North Dakota State has not committed many turnovers, averaging only 10.7 per game.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between these conference rivals. Their previous game was a Bison victory, taking the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over their most recent meetings. However, Western Illinois leads the matchup ATS with a record of 8-2. North Dakota State held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five game, while Western Illinois wasn’t able to do so in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – NDakSt, ATS Winner – NDakSt, O/U – Over
Notes
Western Illinois scores an average of just 71.8 points per game (ranked 214th). North Dakota State ranks 48th in points allowed, giving up 65.7 points per game.
The North Dakota State Bison have a defensive rating of 97.2 (ranked 72nd), while the Western Illinois Leathernecks have an offensive rating of 105.6 (ranked 179th).
The North Dakota State Bison average a field goal percentage of 44.8% this season. The Western Illinois Leathernecks are a winless 0-8 when opponents have a FG% of 44.8% or greater.
The Western Illinois Leathernecks rank lower for their field goal percentage (132nd) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (123rd), but the North Dakota State Bison have a better FG% ranking (137th) than eFG% ranking (141st).
Western Illinois ranks 68th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.25. North Dakota State is ranked lower at 126th with an A/TO of 1.14.
Western Illinois makes an average of 6.1 steals per game. When North Dakota State gives up 6 or more steals, the team has an even 3-3 record.
