The Northern Iowa Panthers (18-12) travel to the Ford Center to take on the Evansville Aces (23-7), the best team in the Missouri Valley. Action starts at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, Feb. 27 and will air on ES3.
The Aces enter this game hoping for similar success after topping Bradley 67-55 on Tuesday. With 20 points and 17 rebounds, Egidijus Mockevicius recorded his 25th double-double this season. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a 66-44 win over Indiana State on Wednesday. Jeremy Morgan stood out, recording 11 points, seven rebounds, and five assists.
The Aces do a great job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank second in the nation in FTA rate (49.0), but Northern Iowa is among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the line (ranking first by allowing a FTA rate of 22.5). Put-back points also figure to be rare for the Panthers. They rank 344th in the nation in offensive rebounding (OR% of 18.6%), while the Aces are 32nd-best in the nation on the defensive glass (DR% of 74.6%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Panthers won the first game 57-54. Mockevicius had a double-double in the defeat with 14 points and 13 rebounds.
The Aces have gone 23-7 Straight Up (SU) and 11-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 8-2 ATS. The Aces have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 67.4 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 76.2 points per game. Evansville has consistently been near the top of the nation in terms of field goal percentage, currently ranking third in the nation with a FG% of .503. Spreading the ball around is a huge part of Evansville’s offense. They are sixth in the nation in assists with an average of 18.1 per game. Evansville’s defense has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game dropped to 59.2 during that span, compared to its 67.1 season average. An area where the Aces are particularly strong is defensive rebounding where they average 27.7 per game, 36th in Division I.
On the other side, the Panthers have records of 16-13 ATS and 18-12 SU. Most recently, Northern Iowa is a meager 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games. The Panthers rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking 36th in the nation with 254 made (8.0 per game). The Northern Iowa defense has allowed an average of 70.2 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 64.0. Northern Iowa has not committed many turnovers, averaging only 9.9 per game.
Northern Iowa beat Evansville in their most recent meeting this season, but Evansville still leads the head-to-head record, 6-4 SU, over their most recent matchups. The Aces also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-3-1. Northern Iowa held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Evansville never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Evan, ATS Winner – Evan
Notes
“Evansville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Evansville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 8 of Evansville’s last 11 games “.
“Evansville is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of Evansville’s last 6 games at home”.
“Evansville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northern Iowa”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Evansville’s last 8 games when playing Northern Iowa”.
“Evansville is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa”.
“Evansville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Evansville’s last 7 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa”.
The Evansville Aces hold a solid 12-5 SU record in matchups against Missouri Valley Conference rivals, while the Northern Iowa Panthers currently sit at 10-7 in these games.
Northern Iowa averages 69.3 points per game, placing the team just 204th in the nation. Evansville ranks 57th in points allowed, giving up 67.1 points per game.
Northern Iowa scores just 67.4 points per away game (ranked 173rd). Evansville ranks 65th in points allowed at home, giving up 64.7 points.
The Evansville Aces rank 98th for their offensive rating of 109.4. The Northern Iowa Panthers have a defensive rating of 99.9 (ranked 92nd).
On average, Evansville has 69.7 possessions per game and scores 1.094 points on each possession. Northern Iowa has both fewer possessions (63.8) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.087).
Northern Iowa has an average effective field goal percentage of 54.4%. Evansville is a solid 4-2 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Ranked sixth in the nation, Evansville has an average of 18.1 assists per game. Northern Iowa ranks lower at 223rd with 12.7.
Evansville, the 62nd-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.5 per game. Northern Iowa does worse, ranked 286th with 2.5.
Northern Iowa makes an average of 5.6 steals per game. Evansville has an exceptional 18-5 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
