The Northwestern Wildcats and the Minnesota Golden Gophers square-off in Minneapolis on Saturday, November 19th. The BIG-12 match-up is set to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on the Big Ten Network. Entering the game, the Wildcats are a slight -1 point favorite and the contests total sits at 46.5.
After starting the 2016 season 0-2, including a loss to FCS Illinois State, Northwestern is one game away from playing themselves into a bowl berth. The Wildcat’s coach Pat Fitzgerald has gotten his team back on the right track, and now they hope to accomplish that very goal against Minnesota on Saturday.
Northwestern (5-5):
The Wildcats endured tough defeats to the Buckeyes and the Badgers the previous two weeks before man-handing Purdue, 45-17 on Saturday. Once again quarterback Clayton Thorson was good, hitting the BIG-12 best wide receiver Austin Carr for two of his three touchdown passes. For the year, Thorson has racked-up 2,571 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight picks.
Actually, the running game should get most of the credit in last week’s win over the Boilermakers. Tail back Justin Jackson galloped for 127 yards and two trips to the end zone while John Moten IV added another 119 yards. Jackson has been solid, amassing well over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
Austin Carr has made the case that he is the best receiver in the BIG-12 this season. His numbers certainly coincide with that, nabbing 75 of Clayton Thorson’s passes for over 1,100 yards and a team-high 12 touchdowns.
Northwestern’s Ifeadi Odenigbo is tied for the conference lead with eight quarterback sacks. He leads a Wildcat front seven that ranks 27th in the country in points allowed (21.5). Northwestern is also stout against the run, yielding only 145 yards a contest, which is good for 46th in the country.
Minnesota (7-3):
The Golden Gophers are 7-3 in 2016, even after their loss last week at the hands of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Golden Gophers did hold the lead late in the third quarter, before giving way to two touchdowns shortly after. Either way, nobody thought Minnesota would have sealed-up a bowl berth this quick, and now are playing to up-size their bowl eligibility.
Duel-threat quarterback Mitch Leidner isn’t asked to win games with his arm. His 2016 stats prove why, tossing for only 1,685 yards with five touchdowns and seven picks. In fact, since writing these previews, he is the only signal-caller I’ve covered that has more interceptions than touchdowns. Fortunately for Minnesota, he is dangerous with his feet. Leidner has 266 yards rushing and an impressive eight touchdown appearances.
The running back position is where the Golden Gopher offense’s bread is buttered. Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks have done quite well behind Minnesota’s mammoth offensive line. Together, they have tallied just under 1,500 yards and 19 trips to the promised land. Smith is a red zone monster, hitting pay-dirt 14 times this year.
When forced to produce in the passing game, Mitch Leidner looks to his favorite receiver Drew Wolitarsky. This season, Wolitarsky has gathered in 53 of his throws for 669 yards and three scores.
The Golden Gophers rank fourth in the BIG-12 in total defense, allowing 353 yards a game. That’s pretty good, considering Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin are the three teams that sit in front of them. The Golden Gophers are also solid against the run, allowing only 122 yards a contest.
Trends and Notes:
The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
The Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
The Under is 10-4 in the Wildcats last 14 games overall.
The Over is 10-4 in the Golden Gophers last 14 conference games.
The Road team is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Game Prediction:
These two teams have over achieved in their 2016 campaigns. Now, they will face-off to determine which club has bragging rights for 2017. Minnesota has played ball control offense and relied on a sturdy defense to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard.
Northwestern relies on the talented position players and a tough defense to come away with victories. Taking that into consideration, we should see some decent performances from Justin Jackson and Austin Carr this weekend considering a win and they’re bowl eligible.
The Wildcats are the more battle tested squad and the more well rounded team. Minnesota will give them all they can handle at home, but the overall talent at the skilled positions will make the difference. Take the Wildcats and the point in this BIG-10 slug-fest.
