It will be a battle between Big 10 opponents when the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-5, 1-2 Big 10) welcome the Northwestern Wildcats (9-6, 1-2 Big 10) to Bryce Jordan Center. The game begins at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018.
Penn State opened as a 6-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 139.5 points.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Prediction
The Wildcats are trying to rebound after their 70-55 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their last contest. One of Nebraska’s largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 15-17 (88.2 percent), while the Wildcats were just 11-16 (68.8 percent). Dererk Pardon led Northwestern in scoring with 17 points on 6-for-18 shooting.
The last time the Nittany Lions played, they fell to the Maryland Terrapins, 75-69. Getting to the free throw line was one of Maryland’s biggest strengths. They had 34 free throw attempts, while Penn State had just four. With 17 points on 8-for-11 shooting, Mike Watkins led Penn State in scoring.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Penn State should have a noteworthy edge. The Nittany Lions defense ranks 52nd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.464), while the Northwestern offense is ranked 193rd in effective field goal percentage (0.511). Also, the Wildcats commit the 39th-fewest errors in the nation (turnover percentage of 16.5 percent), while the pesky defense of the Nittany Lions causes the 45th-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 22.6 percent).
Northwestern has a solid 9-6 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (5-8 against the spread (ATS)). A little over half of the Wildcats’ games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Penn State is 11-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS. Of the Nittany Lions’ 12 games that accepted bets, 9 have finished under the O/U total.
Watkins and Lamar Stevens have been playing well over the last five games for Penn State. Watkins has averaged 12.4 points, 10.0 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Stevens has put up 14.0 points and 8.2 rebounds a game during that span.
After the Wildcats won the only game against the Nittany Lions last season, 87-77, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Northwestern had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (37.8 vs. 30.8). Penn State, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.383 vs. 0.317).
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Northwestern, ATS Winner – Northwestern, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Northwestern is 2-4 ATS on the road with 3 unders, 2 overs and 1 push.
Penn State is 4-2 ATS at home with 6 unders and 0 overs.
Penn State ranks 15th in steals per game (9.1) while Northwestern ranks 161st (5.5).
The Nittany Lions rank 33rd in assists allowed per game (10.9) while the Wildcats rank 115th (13.2).
Northwestern averages 4.8 blocks per game, which ranks 40th in the NCAA. Penn State ranks 102nd in blocks allowed per game (3.7).
The Wildcats rank 42nd in rebounds allowed per game (32.0) while the Nittany Lions rank 66th (33.0).
Penn State is 16th in the NCAA with 17.6 three pointers allowed per game while Northwestern is 23rd with 18.0 three pointers allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Northwestern is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
Penn State is 1-2 ATS with 2 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Wildcats’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 8.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nittany Lions have scored an average of 75.8 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 61.6 points per game (3.3 below their season average).
