The Penn State Nittany Lions (15-14) and the Northwestern Wildcats (18-11) will battle at Bryce Jordan Center to close out the regular season. Action gets underway at 9:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 3 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Nittany Lions lost big to Michigan State 88-57 on Sunday. Shep Garner was the game’s leading scorer with 22 points. The Wildcats are coming off a 98-59 win against Rutgers on Saturday. Tre Demps led the game in scoring by posting 24 points on 8-for-13 shooting.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the nation’s slowest-paced teams square off. Penn State ranks 333rd in possessions per game (65.2), while Northwestern is 335th (65.1).
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Nittany Lions winning the first matchup 71-62. Brandon Taylor had a stellar game with 19 points, seven rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and four three-pointers.
The Nittany Lions have gone 15-13 Straight Up (SU) and 13-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Penn State has given up very few turnovers with an average of only 11.2 per game.
Across the court, the Wildcats head into the game with records of 13-14-2 ATS and 18-11 SU. Offensively, the Wildcats have really sputtered in the last 10 games. Their season average has fallen to 72.3 points per game after averaging only 61.1 during that stretch. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Wildcats. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.61. Switching gears to the Northwestern defense, the Wildcats allow just 66.4 points per game, ranking them 46th in the nation. The Northwestern defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only .403 shooting from the field to its opponents.
In their previous meeting this season, Penn State beat Northwestern, bumping its SU record to 6-4 over Northwestern in their most recent meetings. The Nittany Lions also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-3-1. Penn State topped the Wildcats in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) one time over the last five matchups. Northwestern has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – NW, ATS Winner – NW
Notes
Penn State scores an average of just 65.0 points per game (ranked 249th). Northwestern ranks 46th in points allowed, giving up 66.4 points per game.
Northwestern won its last game by a 39-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, Penn State is 0-6. Northwestern is 9-2 in blowouts this season.
The Penn State Nittany Lions average 65.2 possessions per game and .997 points per possession, while the Northwestern Wildcats earn fewer possessions (65.1) but more points per possession (1.111).
Penn State has an average effective field goal percentage of 46.0%. Northwestern is a losing 6-10 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Northwestern Wildcats rank 24th in assists per game, making an average of 16.7. The Penn State Nittany Lions are among the worst in the country with 9.8 assists per game (ranked 345th).
Penn State, the 77th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.3 per game. Northwestern does worse, ranked 109th with 4.0.
Penn State averages a forced turnover rate of 18.0% this season. Northwestern has a 6-4 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
