The undefeated (10) Wisconsin Badgers open their BIG-10 slate in Camp Randall Stadium this weekend against the 2-1 Northwestern Wildcats. The conference opener is scheduled for kick-off at High Noon p.m. EST on Saturday, September 30th. The rivalry can be seen on ABC for your first taste of Saturday college football action. Coming into this grudge-match, the Badgers are a decisive -14.5 point favorite and the game’s total is at 50.5.
The Northwestern Wildcats were idle last week after a 49-7 trouncing of the Bowling Green Falcons on September 16th. Clayton Thorson had two first-half scoring tosses as Northwestern raced to a 35-7 halftime lead and never looked back. This surely will be a much bigger test for Thorson and company on the road against the mighty Badgers.
The Wisconsin Badgers have also had a week off to prepare themselves for this BIG-10 opener. Two weeks ago, they thumped the BYU Cougars 40-6 on the road in Salt Lake. The Badgers were offensively efficient while their defense stifled the hapless BYU Cougars’ offense.
Last year, these two schools played a slow, methodical game against each other. Wisconsin found a way to limit Northwestern to only seven points and captured a 21-7 road victory. It wasn’t pretty by any means but allowed the Badgers to remain undefeated before entering the meat of their conference schedule.
Northwestern Wildcats (2-1)
As mentioned above, quarterback Clay Thorson was outstanding two weeks ago against the Bowling Green Falcons. Overall, he connected on 23 of 30 passes for 370 yards and two touchdown strikes. Thorson is mobile and will probably find himself on the run early and often against an aggressive Wisconsin front seven.
Running back Justin Jackson may be the most important offensive weapon that Northwestern puts out on the field. In fact, he topped 100 yards in both of their wins but was held to only 18 yards in their loss to the Blue Devils. Furthermore, the Wildcats 18-4 when the senior tops the century mark. Even more impressive is that two of those victories came against Wisconsin in which he ran for 162 and 139 yards.
Wide receiver Garrett Dickerson was a one-man show in Northwestern’s victory over the Falcons. The gritty wideout caught nine balls for 150 yards but somehow failed to record a score. Teammate Ben Skowronek actually leads the Wildcats in receiving yards with 218 yards and also two touchdowns.
Defensively, the Wildcats are pretty good, allowing 22.7 points and 410.3 yards per game. Linebacker Paddy Fisher leads the Northwestern with 29 tackles, Joe Gaziano has one sack and Montre Hartage has one pick. All three will need to step up their game as Wisconsin’s offense is brewing with confidence after their dismantling of BYU.
(10) Wisconsin Badgers (3-0)
Badgers’ quarterback Alex Hornibrook was nearly flawless against the Cougars, completing 18 of 19 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, he has completed just under 50 balls for 700 yards with eight touchdowns and one pick. Traditionally, Wisconsin likes to pound the rock but Hornibrook is proving he can produce when called upon to move the chains.
That ground attack is led by true freshman Jonathan Taylor. He may be young but is proving he also can move the ball effectively. In fact, his 438 rushing yards are second in the FBS among those who have played only three games and is tied for 15th overall. The Badgers are averaging 275.3 rushing yards per game in 2017, which is 12th in the nation.
Tight end Troy Fumagalli and wideout Quintez Cephus are shouldering the load for the Wisconsin receiving corps. Together, they have combined for 25 catches for 370 yards and six touchdowns. Fumagalli has notched 15 of those for 236 yards and three scores. He is one of the countries best tight ends and will kill opposing defenses in the play-action pass game.
You and I and everyone that follows this game are aware that there are few defenses that are as formidable as the Badgers on a year to year basis. Two weeks ago was no exception, as the Badgers allowed just 11 first downs and 192 total yards as they posted their biggest non-conference road victory 2009. As of now, they are also ranked fifth in the nation, giving up only 10 points per contest.
Prediction
This series has been very competitive over the past two decades. The Badgers own an 8-7 lead over the last 15 years but it was Northwestern that was victories in Madison the last time they played here in 2015.
Then again, this is a new season and these two teams don’t mirror each other like they did then. Case in point, the Badgers are starting to find plenty of ways putting points up on the board in 2017. Believe it or not, their run-first approach has landed them as the 12th best offense in the land. As a result, they are averaging 43.3 points per game.
The Wildcats aren’t quite the dominating defense of teams from the past. In fact, they rank in the bottom half of all of the college football stats in total yards (410 ypg). They also are 90th against the run which will prove to be a huge problem against the powerful Wisconsin O-line.
Nevertheless, somehow and someway the Wildcats seem to find a way to stick around against Wisconsin. Now, Las Vegas has set this line with Northwestern as +14.5 road dogs. Also, they have the game’s over/under at an unusually high 50.5 points.
Considering all the information that I have provided in this prediction, I believe the best play here is the Wisconson team total 32. I believe that the Badgers will expose the weak underbelly of the Northwestern front seven and rush for plenty of yards. In doing so, Wisconsin will open up their play-action pass game and find a few more scores through the air. Take the Badgers to score in all four quarters and drive home safely.
Trends
The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.
The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
The Over is 5-2 in the Wildcats last seven road games.
The Badgers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
The Badgers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
The Over is 4-0 in the Badgers last four conference games.
The home team is 8-2 in their last 10 home games against one another.
