It’s a huge non-conference clash on the gridiron when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish look for a road win against the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday. The night game fro South Bend is scheduled to begin on Saturday, September 23rd at 8:00 p.m. EST. The contest between the two old rivals can be seen on FOX for your viewing enjoyment. Coming into this grudge match, the Fighting Irish are -3.5 point favorites and the over/under is at 54.
Notre Dame rolled to a 49-20 victory on the road over the Boston College Eagles last Saturday. In that contest, the over matched, offensively stunted Eagles kept it close until half-time but were ran over in third. As a result, Boston college had no way to make a come back.
Michigan State had a bye last week but prior to that they knocked off Western Michigan 28-14 at home. Nothing spectacular came from that contest, except the Spartans defense shined against the potent rushing attack of the Broncos.
Overall, Notre Dame has a 35-28-1 advantage in the all-time series between the teams. Including, a 35-28 home win in the most recent meeting on September 17th of last year.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1)
The Fighting Irish suffered a tough one point loss at home to the Georgia Bulldogs in week two. Nevertheless, you wouldn’t have known it from their demolition of the Eagles last Saturday in Boston. The Fighting Irish trailed 10-7 in the second quarter but outscored the Eagles 42-10 the rest of the way. Notre Dame rushed for an outrageous 515 yards while averaging 10.1 yards per carry.
Leading the onslaught on the ground was running back Josh Adams and quarterback Brandon Wimbush. It was an amazing performance, as Adams carried the ball 18 times for 229 yards and 10 first downs. How he failed to reach pay-dirt is beyond me.
Not to be out done, Wimbush toted the rock another 21 times for 207 yards and four trips to the promised land. Yes it’s true, both players eclipsed the 200 yard mark against the Eagles defense. Coming into this game, Boston College had one of the better defenses in 2016 and was expected to be strong up front once again in 2017.
It’s a good thing that Brandon Wimbush wasn’t forced to throw the ball down field against Boston College. In his 24 attempts, he only completed 11 passes for 96 yards and an interception. For the year, he has totaled 460 yards with two scores and two picks.
Wide outs Alize Mack and Equanimeous St. Brown weren’t called upon to do much of anything against the Eagles last weekend. Even so, both have done well when they have had the opportunity to show their stuff. Together, the duo has combined for 200 yards on 16 catches and a touchdown.
Defensively, Notre Dame is tied for 31st in scoring offense with 39 points per game. They also are ranked 39th in scoring defense as they allow only 18.7 points per contest. That is a major improvement from a defense that was towards the bottom of Division I ball last season. To be honest, I’m not overly impressed with the competition they have faced so far, but the numbers are what they are.
Michigan State Spartans (2-0)
Sparty has had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry game after dispatching of Western Michigan. Unfortunately, Michigan State is still looking to solidify their offensive production. Nevertheless, it has been good enough to put two wins on the board.
New quarterback Brian Lewerke has brought a dual-threat option under center for the Spartans. They have not had that in a long time in Langsing. He has completed 35 of 54 passes for 411 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
Brian Lewerke also has added 150 yards plus two scores on the ground. He definitely possesses enough speed to break a big one because he ran for a 60 plus yarder against the Broncos.
Tail backs L.J. Scott and Madre London do most of the work in the Spartans’ running attack. Both are pretty good too. Combined, the two rushers have just over 50 carries for 220 yards and two scores. Together with their signal-caller, Michigan State has found the production they need in the running department.
Just like at the tail back spot, two receivers do most of the damage when the Spartans look to move the chains via the air. Darryl Stewart Jr. and Felton Davis III have reeled in 17 passes for over 220 yards and two scores. Michigan state needs to ramp up their air attack if they want to prevent teams from loading the box on them. With the Fighting Irish having an average secondary, this might be the opportunity to take some shots.
The Spartans defense has always played with a lot of pride. Apparently, this season will be no different than the last 10 or 15. In their first to games, the Spartans are 8th in the nation against the pass, allowing only 112 yards per game.
They’re also tied for 17th against the run (91 yards) and second in the nation in total yards allowed (203). Their front seven will have their hands full when the Notre Dame ground game comes to town this weekend.
Prediction
Once again, this write-up contains two teams that mirror each other offensively. Clearly, both schools look to impose their will in the running game. In doing so, they allow their greenhorn quarterbacks an easier go of it in the passing game. The thing is, both of these signal-callers are their teams leading rushers.
It’s really hard to gauge a defense only two or three weeks into a season. The numbers look good for both programs with the edge going to the Spartans. Even so, it’s hard to say just how effective their front seven’s will be against the others O-Line.
That’s why the over/under 54 here is tricky. If they are, and you bet they will be, you’ll probably get paid. If not, it’s going to be a long day rooting for points that just won’t come. That’s enough to take me off this play.
Instead, I’m going to suggest you lay your money down on the team with the better offense. Even if the game’s scoring stays low, I like the way the Fighting Irish are built to be more explosive. That could pay dividends if they can break a few big plays to give them some breathing room in a low scoring game. I think they will do just that. So, buy the 3.5 down to three or 2.5 and hope the road team gives them hell in East Langsing on Saturday night.
Trends
The Fighting Irish are 2-7 in their last nine games on grass.
The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last four against the BIG-10.
The Over is 4-1 in the Fighting Irish last five contests.
The Over is 6-2 in the Fighting Irish last eight road games.
The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
The Under is 4-0 in the Spartans last four home games.
The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
