In a display of two teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Brian Kelly and the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10.5) are set to face off against the USC Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. The matchup kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and ABC is scheduled to televise the action.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. USC Trojans Betting Preview
USC is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 10.5 points in this Saturday matchup. The Fighting Irish are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Trojans are +315. Should one program can get out in front early on it’ll generate a decent live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 53.5 points.
Square bettors have been hammering the Fighting Irish, as the opening line was 8. The game’s total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 53.5.
The profitable Fighting Irish are 6-4-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 8.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-5. The Trojans have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.1 units. The team is 3-8 ATS and also has an O/U record of 6-5.
The Fighting Irish are 11-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Trojans are 5-6 SU.
These two squads met last year with the final result being a 49-14 win for Notre Dame.
The Irish are looking to remain undefeated following a 36-3 win over Syracuse last week. Ian Book completed 23-of-37 passes for 292 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Dexter Williams (74 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Miles Boykin (seven receptions, 76 yards) and Chase Claypool (six catches, 98 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
USC just dropped a 34-27 game to UCLA. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Bruins to eat up the clock by running for 313 yards on 52 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Joshua Kelley was outstandingfor the Bruins, recording 289 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 40 attempts. For USC, JT Daniels completed 20-of-34 passes for 337 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Vavae Malepeai (77 rushing yards on 15 attempts) mounted the running game while Michael Pittman Jr. (seven receptions, 106 yards) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (six catches, 98 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Notre Dame’s run the ball on 57.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while USC has a rush percentage of 51.2 percent. The Fighting Irish have produced 197 rush yards per game and have 26 scores on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 137 rush yards per game and have 16 total rushing TDs.
Judging by the results so far, it seems like the Fighting Irish should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Trojans have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Irish offense has logged 258 yards/contest in the air overall and has 21 passing scores so far. The Trojans have produced 240 pass yards per game and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Notre Dame appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 137 yards and pass for 184 yards per game. The USC D has allowed 211.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.4 yards per game on the ground. The Irish are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.33 to opponents, while the Trojans have allowed a 6.05 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Book has put up 2,116 yards this season. He’s completed 73 percent of his 241 attempts with 17 passing scores and only five interceptions. Book has an 8.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.26 over the last two outings.
We expect the Notre Dame offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, Dexter Williams, Brandon Wimbush and Chase Claypool have collectively accounted for 507 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the home locker room, JT Daniels has completed 158-of-278 passes for 2,143 yards, 11 TDs and nine INTs. Daniels’ ANY/A sits at 6.14 for the year and 5.70 across his last two games.
We’re expecting the Trojans to control tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. In addition to Amon-Ra St. Brown (603 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Vavae Malepeai (433 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Aca’Cedric Ware (654 rush yards, six rush TDs) have really been key factors in the Trojans’ recent offensive gameplans.
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Notre Dame defense has 29 sacks on the year while USC has 26.
USC has lost eight fumbles this season while Notre Dame has lost three.
The Fighting Irish offense has registered six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Trojans have accounted for 14 such plays.
The Notre Dame defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while USC has given up six such plays.
The Notre Dame offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while USC has created 16 such runs.
The Fighting Irish defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Trojans have given up 14 such runs.
The Over/Under for USC’s last game was set at 55. The over cashed in that 34-27 loss to UCLA.
Over its last three games, USC is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, Notre Dame is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
USC has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 17-point win over Oregon State on November 3rd representing its only victory over that span.
The O/U for Notre Dame’s last game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 36-3 victory over Syracuse.
As a team, Notre Dame has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.2 over its last two.
USC has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.2 over its past two.
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