It’s been a fantastic 2018 campaign for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They are one game away from an undefeated regular season, and that will have them in the College Football Playoff for the first time in their history. Accordingly, online sportsbook BetDSI has made the Irish an odds-on favorite to be one of the four teams in the CFP.
Will Notre Dame Qualify for the 2019 College Football Playoff?
Yes -250
No +200
The Irish are 11-0 and were ranked No. 3 in the CFP rankings last week. Notre Dame helped its case even further by hammering Syracuse 36-3 in Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon. That win erased any doubt of the Irish being caught from behind by multiple one-loss teams, and the Irish are safe provided they knock off USC in Los Angeles this Saturday.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Notre Dame is currently a nine-point favorite in that game. That point spread is usually equivalent to a team being -350 or -400 on the moneyline, so there is a lot of value on the Irish in that aspect alone. There is no chance of a 12-0 Notre Dame being left out of the playoffs, making the ‘Yes’ option here incredibly appealing.
Others seem to disagree, but I believe the Irish are in the College Football Playoff even if they lose to USC this Saturday. Notre Dame currently has a better win than any other team in the country, their season-opening 24-17 victory over Michigan, and additional wins over teams like Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Northwestern have strengthened their resume.
How many teams would definitely move ahead of Notre Dame if the Irish were to lose to USC on Saturday? Let’s start in the SEC. Georgia would move ahead of the Irish, but the Bulldogs would still have to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game to get in the CFP. A two-loss Georgia team won’t beat out Notre Dame, and neither would a two-loss LSU team that didn’t even win its division.
Oklahoma? The Sooners have lost to Texas, and their best win would not be as good as the Irish. You can make a case that they have played a tougher schedule, but they have also struggled a lot more with their opponents than the Irish. West Virginia has no chance after losing to Oklahoma State even if they beat Oklahoma twice.
Washington State? The Cougars have some awful advanced metrics working against them. Anyone who uses analytics is down on Wazzou’s chances, and even if they win their last two games to finish 11-1, the wins will be over a then four-loss Washington team and a very underwhelming PAC-12 South champion. Those wins won’t help the Cougs’ chances much.
Then there’s the Big Ten. Would the committee set the dangerous precedent of putting in a one-loss Michigan team, whose loss was to Notre Dame, ahead of the Irish? I don’t think so. Ohio State would have a better case in this scenario, but the Buckeyes have looked really bad over the last few weeks and those performances might linger in the eyes of the committee.
Don’t think twice. Notre Dame is a great bet at these odds, and they should be closer to a -600 favorite to make it to the CFP.
