We’re in uncharted territory here. Never in history has a franchise quarterback hit the open market as a free agent without some sort of career ending injury possibility hanging over his head. Former Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has none of that baggage, just a solid resume of elite statistical performances and three consecutive 4,000-yard passing seasons.
With the announcement last night that the Redskins had completed a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs for the services of Alex Smith, Cousins is officially in the wind. Needless to say, the BetDSI Sportsbook has already unveiled the odds on who Cousins will take the field for in 2018.
THE ODDS
Cleveland Browns +175
New York Jets +230
Denver Broncos +300
Buffalo Bills +450
Miami Dolphins +750
Minnesota Vikings +800
Arizona Cardinals +1000
Jacksonville Jaguars +1500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500
The Browns are the significant favorite for good reason. They have tons of available cap space in 2018 to take on any contract and Cousins will absolutely reset the market. My guess is He’ll get a minimum of $26 million a year and likely $75-80 million guaranteed. Cleveland will be sitting on $109.653 million in cap space and that’s before they make any cuts in the coming off-season.
They have two first round picks and three second round picks. Signing Cousins lets the Browns slot in their franchise quarterback, already proven in the NFL, and enables them to use those five picks in the first two rounds on players that will make a winning impact this season. It would completely re-shuffle the draft board and even make Cleveland’s own No. 1 pick more valuable as another team enamored with Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold, could want to give up multiple top picks to get it. Signing Cousins could not only impact Cleveland from a talent standpoint this season, it could land them an extra first round pick next season. I’ll write more about the ripple effect of the Smith trade later today.
Like the Browns, the Jets too have a ton of cap space to work with, $72.646 million. They have plenty of room for a big, free agent contract. Skipping out on drafting a QB, would allow them to take a position player at No. 6, probably a wide receiver for Cousins to work with.
The Broncos at +300 are the most intriguing landing spot for me. John Elway has not been shy about pursuing a free agent quarterback before and this one comes with far less risk. As I said earlier, the last guy to shake free, Peyton Manning, had a neck issue that nearly ended his career. No one knew how the future Hall of Famer would play in 2012 when the Indianapolis Colts decided to release him. It looks like an easy move for the Broncos to make in hindsight, but at the time, there were real questions as to whether Manning could ever play again.
It was a similar situation when the then San Diego Chargers moved on from Drew Brees in 2006. He was coming off shoulder surgery and there were real questions about his future effectiveness as a starting quarterback. It’s the specific reason the Miami Dolphins didn’t sign him and Nick Saban is coaching at Alabama today. Talk about ripple effects.
When Manning hit the streets, the Broncos weren’t on anybody’s short list. His obvious landing spot was the Tennessee Titans and they were certainly in the mix right until the end. But it was Elway that got in Manning’s ear and talked him into taking his talents to the Mile High City. Would it be ridiculous to think that Elway (with maybe the help of Manning this time) could do the same for Cousins? Certainly for the 29-year-old free agent, this would be the ideal team situation.
The Broncos aren’t in a rebuild. They have elite players on offense and especially defense now and will be competing in an AFC West that just lost the quarterback on one of its best teams. Denver makes a lot of sense.
Opening Odds Courtesy of BetDSI.eu. Odds subject to change. Click Here for up-to-date odds.
