The Ohio State Buckeyes (19-11) will have their chance to bring down the Big Ten’s best team when they face the No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (25-5) at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Action starts at 12:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Spartans enter this game hoping for similar success after blowing out Rutgers 97-66 on Wednesday. Bryn Forbes led all scorers on the team with 33 points on 11-for-18 shooting. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are coming off a 68-64 win against Iowa on Sunday. Keita Bates-Diop played well for Ohio State, registering 19 points, six rebounds, and four blocks.
Over the last five games, Forbes has been playing at a high level for the Spartans. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 5.4 three-pointers.
From an eFG% perspective, this will be a balanced matchup. The sweet-shooting Michigan State offense ranks 14th in the nation in that metric at 56.0%, while Ohio State is 22nd-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (45.5%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Spartans won the first game 81-62. Forbes had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 27 points, three rebounds, two assists, one steal, and seven three-pointers.
The Spartans have gone 25-5 Straight Up (SU) and 20-9 Against The Spread (ATS). The Spartans have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 68.4 points during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 80.3 points per game. The Spartans are a dangerous three-point shooting team with 9.0 made per game, one of the highest marks in Division I. Michigan State is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.74. Turning to the defensive side, the Michigan State defense has been very good, only giving up 63.4 points per game. Michigan State’s defense can be considered one of the best in the country. The Spartans allow a .373 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the country. An area where the Spartans are particularly strong is defensive rebounding where they average a Division I-best 29.7 defensive rebounds per game.
In the other locker room, the Buckeyes have 19-11 SU and 16-14 ATS records. Opponents have not been able to figure out how to slow down Ohio State recently. Over the past 10 matchups, they have covered every spread (10-0 ATS) and have managed a SU record of 9-1. During the last 10 games, they averaged 83.9 PPG, above their 70.5 PPG season average. Switching gears to the Ohio State defense, blocking shots is an area where it has excelled. The Buckeyes average 5.5 blocks per game, making them one of the best in the nation.
Michigan State won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bumping its SU record to 6-4 over Ohio State in their most recent meetings. Additionally, with a 6-4 record, Michigan State has the advantage ATS. Michigan State has led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last five matchups. Ohio State has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – MSU, ATS Winner – MSU
Notes
“Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 7 of Michigan State’s last 8 games “.
“Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 6 games at home”.
“Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ohio State”.
“Michigan State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ohio State”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games when playing Ohio State”.
“Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ohio State”.
Michigan State sits at 12-5 SU against its conference, while Ohio State is 11-6 SU.
Ohio State averages 70.5 points per game, placing the team just 188th in the nation. Michigan State ranks 13th in points allowed, giving up 63.4 points per game.
Ohio State scores just 67.2 points per away game (ranked 178th). Michigan State ranks 10th in points allowed at home, giving up 59.6 points.
The Michigan State Spartans have the fifth-best offensive rating in the nation (119.3). The Ohio State Buckeyes have a defensive rating of 98.0 (ranked 40th).
The Ohio State Buckeyes average 68.0 possessions per game and 1.037 points per possession. The Michigan State Spartans earn fewer possessions with 67.3, but they score more points with 1.193.
Michigan State is ranked 14th in the nation with an average effective field goal percentage of 56.0%. Ohio State has not won a game this season when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage (0-4).
On average, Michigan State attempts 21.0 three pointers and Ohio State attempts 18.0. Both teams have winning records when they have 20 or more three point attempts. The Michigan State Spartans sit at 19-2 and the Ohio State Buckeyes are 9-4.
The second-ranked team in the category, Michigan State has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.74 this season. Ohio State ranks outside the top 100 at 290th with an A/TO of .89.
Michigan State ranks 55th in offensive rebounding. When it comes to defensive rebounds, Ohio State ranks 40th.
Ohio State makes an average of 5.5 steals per game. Michigan State has a superb 14-3 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
