The Edmonton Oilers are in the playoffs. Hallelujah! And they have home ice advantage!
For the first time since their miracle run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2006, the Oilers are going to be playing past the final day of the regular season. Or, as one popular meme likes to point out, Oilers fans will be able to tweet about their team being in the playoffs for the first time ever.
It seems like the pieces are finally coming together. After years of turmoil and lottery picks and coaching changes, the copper ‘n’ blue look poised to make a legitimate run. This even after the Oilers traded away prized forward Taylor Hall in the offseason for what looked like pennies on the dollar in Adam Larsson. They finished the year strong, rode the league’s leading scorer to offensive dominance and got a record-breaking year out of their goaltender.
San Jose, last year’s Western Conference Champions, backed into the playoffs about as hard as a team can back in. They backed up so much that I half expected a beeping noise to come out of the SAP Center. They managed to win three of their last four in April, but that’s only after going 1-8-0 in their final nine games in March.
Expectation will be a key X-factor in this series. How will the young stud Connor McDavid handle his first postseason? Will the grizzled veterans of the Sharks be able to recapture the magic of last year?
Edmonton is a -135 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Oilers.
This is a tough decision. The Oilers were more efficient in the regular season in terms of their yearly average. They ranked eighth in the NHL with 2.96 goals-for per game. The Sharks were 19th at 2.67. But San Jose still has some of the most lethal weapons in the league.
Brent Burns tallied a team-leading 76 points as a defenseman. Joe Pavelski and Burns tied for the team lead in goals with 29. And of course, you can’t forget about Jumbo Joe Thornton or Patrick Marleau.
But the health of these weapons is a major concern. Logan Couture will be out tonight as he deals with the recovery of dental surgery after taking a puck to the face. Thornton’s knee has been a problem as he sat out the last three games of the regular season and it may even force him out of the lineup for the first game.
Edmonton got the most out of their forward lines and how. Connor McDavid clinched the Art Ross Trophy by being the only player in the league to hit triple-digits in points. He finished with a round 100. Leon Draisaitl finished with 77 points in just his second full season in the league. Patrick Maroon surprised many a pundit by finishing with 27 goals, but being on a line with McDavid will help boost anyone’s numbers.
At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether or not playoff experience is really all that important. Most of the Oilers’ players are untested in the postseason, with the exception of guys like Milan Lucic or Benoit Pouliot. The Sharks were just in the Stanley Cup Final.
Edmonton took the last three head-to-head matchups against the Sharks, taking the season series 3-2. They held the Sharks to two regulation goals or fewer in four of the five matchups, while Edmonton averaged 3.2 goals per game.
The edge is to Edmonton, until McDavid doesn’t score in his first game and the media pounces on him.
Defense: advantage Sharks.
Brent Burns. That is all.
Okay, there’s a lot more to it than that, but Brent Burns is a major part of it. Burns is the second-best defenseman in the NHL for my money, behind only Erik Karlsson. San Jose finished fifth in goals-allowed, and for good reason. They have a great core of blueliners.
Beyond Burns, Paul Martin rounds out the top pairing nicely. While he is not the sharpshooter that Burns is (who is, really?), he still is a nice complement. He finished with a 51.3% Corsi-for rating, a solid figure. He may be getting up there in age, but he can still move.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic had a breakout year last season by registering a career-high 39 points. His scoring tapered off a bit this season, down to 28 points. He is still a valuable piece and a great puck-mover.
Edmonton lacks a big time offensive weapon on defense. Their leading scorer in that department is Oskar Klefbom with 38 points. They have a collection of bit contributors and nothing more. They are eighth in the league in goals-allowed, but they are prone to mistakes. Bad mistakes.
Kris Russell is on the second pairing for Edmonton. Russell was undressed in last year’s postseason by the St. Louis Blues when he played for the Dallas Stars. A return to form would be nightmarish for the Oilers. Regardless of whether he’s stepped up his game this season, he’s still slow and has a propensity for forgetting coverage.
Special teams: advantage Oilers.
Last season, the San Jose Sharks had the third-best powerplay in the NHL. Brent Burns and company dominated when up a man. This season, they have tumbled all the way down to 25th in the league. Yikes.
Edmonton, meanwhile, has taken their place among the upper echelon of powerplay teams, ranking fifth in the league with a 22.9% efficiency rating. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl both have 27 powerplay points.
This is the department where Milan Lucic comes most in handy. Lucic finished with 25 points on the man advantage, third on his team but equal the Sharks team leader (Burns, duh). Lucic had 12 goals on the powerplay because he is the ultimate net-front presence. He uses his hulking 6’3″ frame to his advantage to set screens, which are vitally important. This opens up space for McDavid and his crew to work their magic.
The penalty kill is a wash. Both teams operate at an 80.7% rate.
Which means the special teams battle comes down to who can convert on the powerplay more. The Sharks were 1-for-16 in the regular season against Edmonton. The Oilers were 3-for-18.
Goaltending: advantage Oilers.
Cam Talbot had a historic year for the Oilers. He broke Grant Fuhr’s long-standing franchise wins record by recording 42 this season. Talbot finished with seven shutouts, a goals-against average of 2.39 and a save percentage of .919.
He finished 9-2-0 in his last 12 starts down the stretch. His dominance at home will be something to watch.
Congrats @cmcdavid97 on hitting the century mark! You can thank me later for all the confidence I give you in practice. #hesgood
— Cam Talbot (@ctalbot33) April 11, 2017
Martin Jones took a step backwards rather than a step forwards from last year to this, which was a disappointment. Though he won 35 games, his goals-against average dipped to 2.40 from 2.27 last year, and his save percentage dropped six points to .912.
On the road, he is 16-13-2 with a .908 save percentage. The fact that the Oilers will have home-ice advantage is a major boon for Edmonton.
Bold Predictions:
1) Joe Thornton will play through an injury and it will not be pretty.
2) Edmonton will not lose at home.
3) Connor McDavid will score in Game 1.
4) If Couture and Thornton are not healthy, this will be a quick series.
Prediction: Oilers in 6.
