The Atlanta Hawks (20-47) go head-to-head against the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-29) at Philips Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 13, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks Free Prediction
The last time the Thunder played, they topped the Sacramento Kings, 106-101. The Thunder made 14 of their 18 free throws (77.8 percent) and held the Kings to an effective field goal percentage of 0.473 (below the 0.525 mark opponents have averaged against Oklahoma City this season). Russell Westbrook played a massive role in the victory for Oklahoma City, registering 17 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds on his way to his 19th triple-double this season.
The Hawks fell to the Chicago Bulls in their last matchup, 129-122. Chicago’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Atlanta. The Bulls had a rate of 4.5 (better than their season average of 12.0), while the Hawks posted a mark of 14.1. Taurean Prince had a solid game for Atlanta, leading both teams in scoring with 38 points on 11-for-18 shooting.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Atlanta. Atlanta ranks 29th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.2 percent), while the pesky defense of Oklahoma City forces the second-most turnovers in the NBA (15.2 percent). Moreover, the Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.8 percent), while the Hawks rank 29th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.3 percent).
Oklahoma City comes into the contest with records of 40-29 straight up (SU) and 27-40-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Thunder games, with 37 unders compared to 31 overs.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is 20-47 SU and 33-32-2 ATS. Games including the Hawks also have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (52.2 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Westbrook scored a game-high 30 points in the first matchup, in which the Thunder beat the Hawks 120-117 but did not cover as 11.5-point favorites. He also put up 15 assists and seven rebounds. The game finished with a total of 237 points, which was 34.5 points above the projected point total of 202.5 points. The Thunder had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (42.9 vs. 21.9) and had a better free throw rate (0.232 vs. 0.165).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Atlanta Hawks Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Oklahoma City is 13-21 ATS on the road with 18 unders and 16 overs.
Atlanta is 18-17 ATS at home with 17 overs, 16 unders and 2 pushes.
Atlanta is 9-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 20-5.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Hawks are 18-26 and the Thunder are 36-15.
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (8.9) while Atlanta ranks 27th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
The Thunder rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Hawks rank 25th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
Oklahoma City averages 18.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8).
The Thunder rank fourth in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Hawks rank 27th (41.0).
Atlanta ranks eighth in assists per game (23.6) while Oklahoma City ranks 29th (21.1).
The Thunder average 14.8 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Hawks rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.1).
Oklahoma City averages 5.1 blocks per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Atlanta ranks 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
The Hawks average 30.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The Thunder rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
Oklahoma City ranks 15th in points in the paint per game (43.9) while Atlanta ranks 28th (40.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.0, up from 3.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hawks have scored an average of 104.2 points per game (0.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (6.0 above their season average).
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