The Utah Jazz (1-1) meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in game three of the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 21, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Utah is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 207 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
Favors had 20 points and 16 rebounds in game two, in which the Jazz, who were 3.5-point underdogs, beat the Thunder 102-95. The game finished with a total of 197 points, which was 11.5 points below the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Jazz had a much better free throw rate (0.274 vs. 0.133) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.4 vs. 19.6).
It could be an error-filled game for the Utah offense. Utah ranks 24th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent), while the gambling defense of Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the league (15.3 percent). Also, the Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.5 percent), while the Jazz rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.8 percent).
Oklahoma City heads into the contest with records of 49-35 straight up (SU) and 34-48-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Thunder have typically finished under the O/U total (56.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 49-35 SU and 44-40 ATS. A little over half of Jazz games have also finished under the projected point total.
Donovan Mitchell has averaged 22.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Utah.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Oklahoma City is 18-23 ATS with 23 unders and 18 overs.
At home, Utah is 22-19 ATS with 25 unders and 16 overs.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 22-5 and Utah is 35-7.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Jazz are 40-13 and the Thunder are 45-18.
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.1) while Utah ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
The Thunder rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Jazz rank 23rd (11.4).
Utah ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 24th (30.5).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points per game (15.3) while the Jazz rank 22nd (10.3).
Oklahoma City averages 18.8 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.7).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while the Jazz rank 19th (43.4).
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 13th (23.2).
The Jazz rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while the Thunder rank ninth (43.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 106.8 points per game (2.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 97.8 points per game (2.2 below their season average).
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