The Utah Jazz (2-1) square off against the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in game four of the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game can be seen on TNT at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 23, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 210.5 points with Utah opening as a 5.5-point favorite.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz ATS Prediction
Rubio put up 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in game three, in which the Jazz beat the Thunder 115-102, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 217 points, which was 10 points above the projected point total of 207 points. The Jazz had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.5 vs. 14.6) and had a better free throw rate (0.225 vs. 0.179).
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Utah. Utah ranks 24th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent), while the pesky defense of Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the NBA (15.3 percent). Furthermore, the Thunder are among the league’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 percent). The Jazz, meanwhile, rank fourth at securing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 79.9 percent.
Oklahoma City comes into the contest with records of 49-36 straight up (SU) and 34-49-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 47 of their 85 games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Utah owns records of 50-35 SU and 45-40 ATS. Just over half of Jazz games have also finished under the total.
Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio have played at a high level over the last five games for Utah. Mitchell has averaged 24.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Rubio has put up 14.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.2 steals a game during that span.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Oklahoma City is 18-24 ATS with 23 unders and 19 overs.
Utah is 23-19 ATS at home with 25 unders and 17 overs.
When allowing under 100 points, Oklahoma City is 22-5 and Utah is 35-7.
The Jazz are 41-13 when they reach 100 points, while the Thunder are 45-19.
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.1) while Utah ranks 24th in steals allowed per game (8.3).
The Jazz rank third in three pointers allowed per game (26.2) while the Thunder rank 24th (30.6).
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (14.9) while Utah ranks 22nd (11.5).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points per game (15.1) while the Jazz rank 22nd (10.4).
Oklahoma City averages 18.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (44.9) while the Jazz rank 19th (43.4).
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 13th (23.2).
The Jazz rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while the Thunder rank ninth (43.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 3.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 107.4 points per game (3.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 98.8 points per game (1.2 below their season average).
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