The Denver Nuggets are in a good mood as they await the Oklahoma City Thunder to come to play at high altitude on Thursday, but the visitors won’t come for hiking and sightseeing. The Thunder are struggling to play with consistency and are vowing to turn things around sooner than later.
Thunder at Nuggets
Spread: PK (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 214.5 points (-110)
Terrible showing in Sacramento dooms OKC to a bad loss
Few had seen it coming. The Kings have been so inefficient and discombobulated that this was supposed to be an easy win for the Thunder. The game started in accordance – the Kings starting lineup clanked one shot after another, unable to score for minutes, and the Thunder jumped out in front 25-8. Yet, instead of steamrolling over the hapless opponent, they caught the bad basketball bug and played terribly over the next three quarters.
There’s ugly, and then there’s this self-destructing Thunder basketball they showed in Sacto. The Thunder shot 33.7 percent from the field, committed three shot clock violations in the third quarter alone and finished with 17 turnovers. Carmelo Anthony was 4-of-17 from the field and team low -21 on the plus/minus. George was 4-of-16, practicing his three shot once again, and Westbrook was 7-of-21 to go with 7 turnovers. With there prized trio faltering, the Thunder were outscored 64-32 over the middle 25 minutes, as the Kings reserves started hitting shots and Zach Randolph joined the party in the second half, scoring all of his 18 points after the break. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City players were trying to do everything on their own. Westbrook did not create and when he did, a shot would follow his pass, so the ball stopped moving quickly. OKC had just 15 assists for the game, and at least half of those came in the solid first quarter when the ball found Adams inside.
The worst thing about this team entering the game in Denver on a three-game loss is that during all these bad times, there’s no emotion. The ‘MVP’ is releasing some artificial statements to draw attention to how good of a teammate he is, but the truth is that there’s no togetherness and no feel bad on the court. OKC is playing too much me-first ball, and it’s costing them.
Place: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
Date/Time: Thursday, November 9th, 2017. 10:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Denver have their way with the Nets behind Jokic’s 41 points
The Denver Nuggets having a different type of a hero. Or an anti-hero if you allow me to construct this for Jokic. The big guy is so modest and team-oriented that he makes Tim Duncan look like a Hollywood star. Teammates have to remind him that they want him to shoot more, and for one night, he obliged.
The Denver Nuggets enjoyed some weak opposition on Tuesday, thrashing the Brooklyn Nets 112-104. The Nets managed a backdoor cover as most of the starters watched the fourth quarter from the bench, as the Nuggets needed only three periods to amass a 20-point lead. Brooklyn never threatened, not playing their best game. Jokic was the central figure of this game, scoring a career-high 41 points on 16-of-25 shooting, enjoying the open space the Nets defense gave him. He also grabbed 12 rebounds and had 5 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals, for a terrific all-round performance. The spotlight was on him, so perhaps another strong game from Paul Millsap goes somewhat unnoticed. The biggest Denver signing in years had started off the season very slowly but is now finding his place in this Nuggets team. He scored 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting and played excellent help defense. Barton was the only other double-digit scorer for the Nuggets with 17 points off the bench. The Nuggets could have shot better, as they were just 9-of-34 from beyond the arc, but then, it’s good when this happens in a game you already control.
The game against the Thunder marks the fifth game on this 6-game homestand, and the Nuggets have enjoyed their stay in Denver. They beat all opponents but the Warriors and have managed to gel. They are enjoying their season now and play with spirit and positive chemistry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Game Trends & Prediction
In all the three defeats, the Thunder had a role of a favorite, so they wouldn’t cover. Such is the life with three big-name players, so I’m not surprised that they are just 4-6 against the spread. Well, I’m partially am, as they could’ve done worse. They are also 2-4 on the road. The high scoring expectation that is not coming due to too much individual action has kept the totals in unders for the last five games. OKC is just 2-8 against the over/under overall and 1-6 on the road. To be fair, they do play solid defense for the most part.
Denver was a big favorite in the last game, and despite it being very one-sided, they allowed the margin to fall under the handicap and thus did not cover. They wouldn’t cover in any of the last three games, and did so just twice in the last nine games, so they are not doing favors to their backers. They are 3-8 for the season and 2-4 at home against the spread. On the totals market, the unders are prevalent. Out of 11 games played, the under happened 7 times, but the trend has been turning as of late, as the Denver eclipsed the set line in four of the last six games.
Admi-Rank: Despite heading a wrong direction, the Thunder are still the team with more potential, if they can sort things out. The Nuggets tend to fall to better teams and beat weaker ones, which is about as good of a description of an average team as it gets.
It’s all important to recognize a true trend, good or bad, and not overreact to a single game. With the Thunder, it’s running deeper than just one or few games, but like all these teams filled with star players, they can temporarily bounce back. On the other side, games in Denver are physically challenging and you have to have the right mental balance to be able to perform at the highest level against the Nuggets at home. Denver are on a definite rise, but this team doesn’t have a high ceiling – they have some obvious flaws, starting with lack of interest in playing defense, false playmaking and a suspect bench. Good things expose those faults, so if the Thunder can hit them where it hurts, their defense can cope with Jokic and Millsap. It’s a tough call to make, as the game will probably be decided on a few shots late in the game.
The books seem to agree and a teasing us with pick-em. I can only give price points of a difference to the Nuggets, so the least I could go for is moneyline +110, so it’s a wait and see approach, but I don’t expect the price to go up so much. I’m more interested in total points here, as it’s set at 214.5, which is rather an attractive line for the over wager. Go for the plus points and hopefully the Thunder won’t shoot as badly as the last time.
My Pick: (no wager at the moment, the target price is Denver ml +110)
Total: Over 214.5 points (-110)
