It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Denver Nuggets (26-25) welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (30-21) to Pepsi Center. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, February 1, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Thunder’s last outing, they were beaten by the Washington Wizards, 102-96. Washington’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Oklahoma City. The Wizards had a rate of 10.5 (better than their season average of 12.5), while the Thunder posted a mark of 17.4 (above their season average of 12.1). Oklahoma City’s Steven Adams played well, finishing with 16 points and 12 rebounds.
The Nuggets lost a tough one against the San Antonio Spurs in their last contest, 106-104. San Antonio’s 31.7 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver, who had a rate of 25.0. The Spurs’ mark was above their season average of 23.2. Denver’s Jamal Murray put together a good game, leading the team in scoring with 18 points on 5-for-12 shooting.
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Denver. Denver ranks 29th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.1 percent), while the pesky defense of Oklahoma City forces the second-most turnovers in the league (15.6 percent).
Oklahoma City holds records of 30-21 straight up (SU) and 21-29-1 against the spread (ATS). Thunder games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (54.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 26-25 SU and 22-26-3 ATS. Games including the Nuggets have typically finished under the projected point total (58.8 percent).
Murray has averaged 23.0 points and 5.2 assists over the last five games for Denver.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Thunder won the most recent matchup 95-94, but did not cover as 5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 189 points, which was 22.5 points below the projected point total of 211.5 points. The Thunder had a better free throw rate (0.123 vs. 0.093) and had a better turnover percentage (10.2 vs. 10.8). Russell Westbrook was the game’s leading scorer with 38 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Oklahoma City is 10-15 ATS with 14 unders and 11 overs.
Denver is 13-12-1 ATS at home with 16 unders and 10 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Oklahoma City is 17-5.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Thunder are 26-9 and the Nuggets are 20-16.
Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while Denver ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.2).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.4) while the Nuggets rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
Denver ranks sixth in assists per game (23.8) while Oklahoma City ranks 26th (21.0).
The Thunder rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while the Nuggets rank 19th (45.6).
Denver ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 24th in three pointers allowed per game (30.5).
The Nuggets rank second in second chance points allowed per game (9.7) while the Thunder rank 16th (12.2).
Oklahoma City averages 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Denver ranks 15th in fast break points allowed per game (11.8).
The Thunder average 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while Oklahoma City ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 4.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 107.8 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (0.6 below their season average).
