The Miami Heat (43-37) meet the Oklahoma City Thunder (46-34) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 9, 2018.
Oklahoma City is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 210.5 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
The Thunder come in on a high note after topping the Houston Rockets in their last matchup, 108-102. The Thunder forced 17 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 30.0 (above their season average of 27.9). With 24 points on 10-for-28 shooting, Russell Westbrook led Oklahoma City in scoring.
In the Heat’s last game, they got blown out by the New York Knicks, 122-98. New York’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Miami. The Knicks had a rate of 20.5 (below their season average of 24.2), while the Heat posted a mark of 14.3 (below their season average of 21.4). Goran Dragic put together a solid performance for Miami, leading the team in scoring with 15 points on 6-for-10 shooting.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a considerable advantage. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while the Oklahoma City offense is ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.512).
Oklahoma City holds records of 46-34 straight up (SU) and 32-46-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 45 of their 80 games have gone under the total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 43-37 SU and 40-36-4 ATS. Coinciding with Oklahoma City, just over half of Heat games have finished under the O/U total.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Westbrook scored a game-high 29 points in the first game, in which the Thunder beat the Heat 105-99, resulting in a push. He also put up 13 rebounds and eight assists. The game finished with a total of 204 points, which was 12.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Thunder had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.7 vs. 17.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.298 vs. 0.207).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Oklahoma City is 17-23 ATS with 22 unders and 18 overs.
Miami is 16-21-2 ATS at home with 20 unders, 17 overs and 2 pushes.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Oklahoma City is 21-5 and Miami is 27-6.
The Thunder are 42-18 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 31-18.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.1) while Miami ranks 24th (11.0).
The Thunder rank third in fast break points per game (15.0) while the Heat rank 25th (9.2).
Miami ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 24th (30.7).
The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.1) while the Heat rank 18th (7.6).
Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while Miami ranks 15th (16.4).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while the Heat rank 19th (43.3).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.9) while Oklahoma City ranks 14th (23.4).
The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Thunder rank 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 3.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 101.6 points per game (1.1 below their season average).
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