The Oklahoma City Thunder (11-7) and their second-ranked offense travel to Miami (10-6) to take on the Heat and their third-ranked defense. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Dec. 3 and can be seen on TNT and FxK.
The Heat are expecting a better outcome after their 105-95 loss to the Celtics on Monday. Dwyane Wade was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points. The Thunder, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 106-100 loss against the Hawks on Monday. Oklahoma City still lost despite the best efforts of Russell Westbrook, who recorded his 12th double-double of the season with 34 points and 11 rebounds.
It will be a showdown of two heavyweights, as the productive offense of the Thunder (second in the league with an offensive efficiency of 107.7) takes the court against the elite defense of the Heat (third in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 96.1).
The Thunder are a slim two-point favorite over Miami. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 199 points for this matchup. The Heat come into this game 10-6 Straight Up (SU) and 7-9 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS against the Western Conference. Miami’s three-point defense can be considered for best in the league, allowing an NBA-low 113 three-pointers (7.0 per game). Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Heat, who lead the league in blocks per game with 7.9.
In the other locker room, the Thunder were a poor bet so far, with a disappointing record of 7-11 ATS. Their SU record, 11-7, hasn’t been quite as bad. Oklahoma City has not performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 3-7 record.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between these two. Their previous game was a Thunder victory, but the win was not enough to overtake Miami in the most recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 3-7 SU over the last 10 meetings. The Heat also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3.
Predictions: SU Winner – OKC, ATS Winner – OKC, O/U – Under
Notes
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami’s last 15 games.
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home.
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 10 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City.
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oklahoma City.
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami.
Miami ranks 25th in points per game with 96.2, while Oklahoma City ranks 24th in points allowed with an average of 103.0 given up.
Oklahoma City ranks second in points allowed per road game (109.7 PPG), while Miami ranks 22nd in points per home game with 98.8.
The Miami Heat are 9-2 in games where they allow fewer than 100 points, while the Oklahoma City Thunder are winless (0-4) when they don’t hit the century mark.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Heat are just 1-4 this season. Oklahoma City is a superb 11-3 when it hits the century mark.
The Thunder have a defensive rating of 100.9 (ranked 15th). The Heat rank 12th for their offensive rating of 102.2.
Oklahoma City beats Miami in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Thunder average 101.1 possessions and 1.077 points per possession, while the Heat average 94.2 possessions with 1.022 points per possession.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking second in the league with an EFF% of 51.6%. The Miami Heat have split their games 1-1 when opponents have a similar or higher EFF%.
The Miami Heat average 19.0 three point attempts per game and are winless (0-1) when attempting at least 25 in a game. The Oklahoma City Thunder average 22.0 attempts and have a winning 4-2 record when attempting 25 or more.
Miami has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 this season (ranked 17th), while Oklahoma City ranks lower at 24th with an A/TO of 1.33.
With 47.7 per game, Oklahoma City ranks near the top of the NBA for rebounds at second. Miami ranks 14th with 44.8.
Miami ranks in the top half of the NBA in defensive rebounding at ninth, while Oklahoma City ranks near the top of the league (second) in offensive rebounding.
On average, the Heat force a turnover rate of 13.7%. When the Thunder turn over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 9-5 record.
