BIG-12 Conference foes butt heads in the Little Apple when the (9) Oklahoma Sooners take on the Kansas State Wildcats on the gridiron this weekend. The game is slated to begin on Saturday, October 21st at 4:00 p.m. EST and can be watched on FOX or the FOX Sports Go Networks. Coming into Manhatten, the Sooners are a -14 point favorite and the contest’s total rests at 54.
The Oklahoma Sooners ride into town on the heels of a 29-24 victory over the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry. It was a nice bounce-back win after being completely stunned at home against the Iowa Cyclones 31-38. Now, the Sooners sit at ninth in the country and need this triumph to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Kansas State Wildcats will be playing their second straight game at home this weekend. Unfortunately, they came up short last week in Kansas when the TCU Horned Frogs handed them a 26-6 defeat. Furthermore, Bill Snyders’ bunch have dropped two games in a row and three of their last four. Obviously, this match-up is key for the Wildcats because they will fall below .500 with another loss.
Last year, these two schools faced-off in Norman, Oklahoma. In that game, the Sooners dominated the Wildcats 38-17 on their way to a BIG-12 title in coach Bob Stoops last season.
(9) Oklahoma Sooners (5-1)
Oklahoma took a big step back when they found themselves on the losing end of things at home against the Cyclones. Instead of packing it in, the Sooners dug in and beat the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl. TCU is still undefeated and in-state rivals Oklahoma State only has one loss. With that in mind, Oklahoma cannot afford another defeat.
Offensively, the Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the country’s best units. Currently, they rank 4th in the nation with 377 passing yards a game. They also sit third in the country in total yards. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has proven to the naysayers that he is an elite college signal-caller. He has repeatedly played well in big games and has gashed opposing defenses for tons of points. This year is no exceptions as the rifleman has tossed for 1,937 yards with 17 touchdowns. Amazingly, Mayfield has served up only one interception on the year.
People may think that the Sooners are a passing offense but that just isn’t the case. They are balanced with the pass and the run and two exclusive tailbacks are helping that happen. Trey Sermon and Abdul Adams have made up a nice little one-two punch in 2017. Together, they have toted the rock 116 times for almost 850 yards and four touchdowns. Also, both backs are capable receivers out of the backfield for Baker Mayfield.
The Oklahoma Sooners sport one of the nation’s deepest wide receiving corps. Five wideouts have caught at least 15 passes and all but one have found the end zone two times or more. In fact, one pass catcher is over 400 yards and three others are over 300. Baker Mayfield likes to spread it around and this is the result when you have multiple players who can find open spaces.
On defense, they have been pretty average as they come in ranked 48th in total yards allowed (368.0 ypg). It is the Oklahoma secondary that continues to be the letdown, sitting 92nd against the pass (241.8 ypg). Fortunately, the front seven keeps running backs in check. The Sooners rank 35th in the country versus the run (126.2 ypg). Overall, they a relenting to 23 points a contest which gives their high-scoring offense plenty of room to breath.
Kansas State Wildcats (3-3)
The Kansas State Wildcats have had a mixture of problems that have led to them losing three of their last four games. First of all, their offense struggles to put points on the board against athletic defenses. Secondly, the squad continues to struggle to balance their offense because the passing game is subpar at best. Lastly, their secondary has been porous ranking 90th in the country. That’s bad news in a conference where Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph reside.
The offense has lost a bit of its identity when it tried to fire-up a passing game to compliment their strong rushing attack. That might work against the weaker teams on the schedule but it certainly hasn’t against stiffer competition. Quarterback Jesse Ertz likes to run first then use the play-action pass to sting defenses that cheat the line of scrimmage. The shifty signal-caller has scrambled around the gridiron for a team-high 336 yards and three scores. He also has passed for 930 more with seven touchdowns and three picks. He is listed as questionable against the Sooners with a sprained knee he suffered last weekend.
The shifty signal-caller has scrambled around the gridiron for a team-high 336 yards and three scores. He also has passed for 930 more with seven touchdowns and three picks. He is listed as questionable against the Sooners with a sprained knee he suffered last weekend.
Another problem the Wildcats are facing is they aren’t getting a whole lot of help from their running backs to compliment Jesse Ertz. Alex Barnes and Alex Delton have combined for almost 100 runs for just under 450 yards and four scores. That is simply not enough when you are trying to keep up with some of the conference’s high-powered attacks.
Three wideouts do about 80 percent of the damage against opposing secondaries when the Wildcats take to the air. Together, the trio has reeled in just under 50 passes for over 800 yards and six scores. Dalton Schoen leads the squad with 286 yards and three scores. Isaiah Zuber leads the group with 24 catches and he also has found the end zone twice.
Overall, the Kansas State defense has done its job and been pretty good keeping teams off of the scoreboard. Like I mentioned above, it is the secondary that continues to struggle. As of this article, the back half sits 90th in the country allowing almost 240 yards a game. The front seven is stout, holding teams to only 124 yards on the ground (33rd). The Kansas State defense is surrendering only 21 points a game in 2017.
Prediction
Sin City has the Oklahoma Sooners as a two-touchdown favorite coming into the Little Apple in Manhatten. I suspect the reason for this is statistically they should find plenty of success through the air. Also, their front seven is pretty good and Kansas State’s bread and butter is their rushing attack. Still, it seems like a lot of points to me against a gritty team that finds a way to keep most of their games close.
The desert prognosticators also have this contest’s total at 54. The Sooners have won four in a row in Manhatten and three of the four have gone over that 54 point mark. Generally, Kansas State puts up plenty of points when they are at home with TCU being the exception last weekend. Therefore, if you want to lay a little cash on this over, I certainly wouldn’t have a problem with that.
Instead, I’m going to suggest that my followers play the line in the BIG-12 affair. With the spread sitting at 14, it just makes sense to buy this up a half a point and force the Sooners to win by more than two touchdowns. With that being said, it is unclear if Jesse Ertz can go in this one after sustaining a sprained knee in the loss to the Horned Frogs last weekend. so, make sure you only play this if your information has him starting under-center on Saturday.
Trends
The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Sooners are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
The Over is 22-10-1 in the Sooners last 33 conference games.
The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
The Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Over is 5-2 in the Wildcats last 7 home games.
The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
