The Bears (+8) are set to host their conference rival Oklahoma State Cowboys (-8) at Baylor. FS1 will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Baylor enters this Big 12 game as a significant underdog and is currently receiving 8 points. The Cowboys are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Bears are +260. If one school finds paydirt early it will create a solid betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 68.5 points.
The less-than-stellar Cowboys have lost 12.0 units so far in 2018 and are 4-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-3. The Bears have lost 0.3 units this season. The team is 3-5 ATS and five of its games have gone over the total.
The Cowboys have gone 5-3 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against conference opponents. The Bears are 4-4 SU overall and are also 2-3 SU in conference play.
The Cowboys enter after a 38-35 win over Texas last week where Taylor Cornelius completed 23-of-34 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Justice Hill (92 rushing yards on 23 attempts) and the signal-caller Cornelius (23 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack. Tylan Wallace (10 receptions, 222 yards, two TDs) and Dillon Stoner (four catches, 33 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, West Virginia knocked off this Baylor crew by a score of 58-14. The Bears defense allowed the Mountaineers to pass for 396 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 172 yards and three scores. David Sills V had a good showing in the win, recording 139 yards and two touchdowns on five catches for West Virginia. As a group, the Bears collectively completed 17-of-29 passes for 205 yards and three interceptions. Jalan McClendon went 16-for-21 for 183 yards while Charlie Brewer was one-of-eight for 22 yards and three interceptions. McClendon (22 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running game as Jalen Hurd (three receptions, 38 yards) and Tyquan Thornton (three catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Oklahoma State has run the ball on 55.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baylor has a rush percentage of 48.1 percent. The Cowboys have run for 199 yards/game (including 164 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Bears are logging 152 rush yards per game (140 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Cowboys might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Bears have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 5.7 to opponents.
The Cowboys offense has averaged 296 yards through the air overall (273 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Bears have produced 300 pass yards per outing (282.8 against Big 12 competition) and have 13 total pass TDs.
Oklahoma State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 140 yards and throw for 256 yards per game. The Baylor defense has allowed 240.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 187.6 yards per game on the ground. The Cowboys are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.42 to opponents, while the Bears have allowed a 7.37 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Cornelius is up to 2,151 yards this season. He’s completed 140-of-226 attempts with 19 scores through the air and only six interceptions. He has an 8.62 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.74 over the past two outings.
Charlie Brewer has completed 133-of-214 passes for 1,580 yards, nine TDs and five INTs for Baylor. His ANY/A sits at 6.11 for the year and 1.34 over his past two outings.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 59-16 win for Oklahoma State.
RELATED: Week 10 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears
SU Winner – Oklahoma State, ATS Winner – Oklahoma State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Oklahoma State defense has more than twice as many sacks as Baylor this year (31 versus 15).
Both teams have lost four fumbles this season.
The Cowboys offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bears have put up four such plays.
The Oklahoma State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Baylor has given up 11 such plays.
The Oklahoma State offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Baylor has created seven such runs.
The Cowboys defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bears have given up 20 such runs.
The O/U for Baylor’s last matchup was 67. The over cashed in the 58-14 loss to West Virginia.
Over its last three contests, Baylor is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three games, Oklahoma State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Baylor has dropped four of its last five games SU, with a three-point win over Kansas State on October 6th accounting for its one victory over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Oklahoma State’s last game going into it was 59.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-35 triumph over Texas.
Oklahoma State has rushed for 3.6 yards per attempt across its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
Baylor has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.4 over its last two.
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