The 23rd-ranked Iowa State Cyclones will try to give their home fans one final home win versus the 15th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys at Jack Trice Stadium. The Big-12 match-up is scheduled to get started on Saturday, November 11th at High Noon EST. The inner-conference rivalry can be viewed on the ABC and ESPN2 networks. The Cowboys come into this match-up as -6.5 point favorites and the contest’s over/under rests at 62.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys fell in defeat to their in-state rivals the Oklahoma Sooners last weekend 52-62. As a result, the Cowboys lost their chance at playing for a national title and maybe their chance at a Big-12 Conference championship. The Oklahoma State offense held up their end of the bargain but Baker Mayfield and company were just too much for the Stillwater defense. This game is a must win if the Cowboys hope to have a chance with a little luck to challenge for the conference crown.
The Iowa State Cyclones also found themselves in the loss column last weekend when they were defeated by the West Virginia Mountaineers 16-20. Up until then, the Cyclones were having a bit of a dream season after defeating the Oklahoma Sooners on the road and the TCU Horned Frogs in Iowa. Now, Iowa State sits tied for second in the Big-12 at 4-2. Overall, the Cyclones are 6-3 and still have hopes of reaching a major bowl game to conclude their season.
(15th) Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will have to beat the surprising Cyclones to have any chance to keep their conference title hopes alive. In order to do that, the defense needs to play a lot better. Their explosive offense has been putting up nearly 580 yards per game, but the porous defense is giving it all back. In fact, they’ve allowed 34 points or more in four of their last six contests.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph has been one of the best players under-center in Division I football. He has been consistent from week to week with only one weak game against the Horned Frogs on his resume’. The outstanding thrower went off for 448 yards with five touchdowns and two picks against the Sooners. Overall, he has completed 63 percent of his throws for 3,314 yards with 27 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
Running back Justice Hill has become quite the weapon over the course of their last seven contests. Before the Mountaineer game, he had eclipsed the century mark four times in a row. Last week, he rebounded nicely, darting for 228 yards on 30 carries and two scores. Overall, he has toted the rock 181 times for 1,064 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Pass-catchers James Washington, Marcell Ateman, and Jalen McCleskey are the best trio of wideouts in college football. Combined, they have over 2,300 yards receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. Washington is a beast, catching a team-high 52 passes for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns. Ateman is close, with another 40 grabs for well over 732 yards and six more scores. Washington is listed as questionable for the game and would be a huge loss if he cannot suit up and play against Iowa State.
The Cowboy’s defense has really let them down over the course of the season. They have had a few decent performances but overall they are the reason Oklahoma State is on the outside looking in. Last week, they surrendered a season-high 785 total yards. Furthermore, their secondary gave up almost 600 yards to Baker Mayfield. Altogether, they sit in the 77th position, surrendering 405 yards per game.
(23) Iowa State Cyclones (6-3)
The Iowa State Cyclones are 6-3 with all of those losses coming by a combined 17 points. The Cyclones have to be considered a surprise this year going 4-2 in the conference with wins at Oklahoma and against TCU at home. They are a scrappy club that has hung around with every team they have played. Their 7-1-1 record against the spread is a testament to that.
Offensively, the Cyclones are more of a passing team than a running one. Two quarterbacks have led the way this year for Iowa State and both have performed fairly well. Jacob Park handled the duties in their first four contests. He completed 61 percent of his passes for nine touchdowns and five picks. Park had a horrible game against the Longhorns and was benched in favor of senior Kyle Kempt. Kempt responded with an amazing performance in their upset win in Norman. He also has been under center for Iowa State’s last four victories. In five games, he has thrown for 1,108 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Cyclones have a one-man show out of their backfield on Saturdays. As a whole, the team doesn’t rank very high with only 112 yards per game on the ground (118th). Nevertheless, tailback David Montgomery has done well when called upon to move the chains. Montgomery has 182 carries for 832 yards and eight trips to the promised land. No other Cyclone running back even has more than 30 carries to their credit.
Allen Lazard and Hakeem Butler have been a nice addition to the Cyclone’s passing attack in 2017. Lazard is a big, rangy receiver who continues to make big plays when called upon. Since his season began, Lazard has snatched up 44 passes for 526 yards and a team-high six touchdowns. Butler is a nice compliment to Lazard on the other side. He has caught 30 passes for 467 yards and four more scores.
On defense, Iowa State is allowing 18.9 points (21st) and 367 yards per game (40th). It is safe to say that this unit has exceeded expectations in 2017. Linebacker Joel Lanning is a tackling machine. He leads the Cyclones with 93 stops. Lineman JaQuan Bailey has five sacks and Kamari Cotton-Moya has three picks to lead the secondary. A tremendous Cowboy offense will be a big test for them this weekend.
Prediction
Odds gurus have the Oklahoma State Cowboys as a 6.5 point favorite heading into Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday. There is little doubt that this is a must-win game so I’d think the Cowboys will be ready to play on Saturday. Even so, this is one tough Cyclone team that finds ways to stick around with whoever they play. Let’s not forget, they have won both games against the conference’s two best clubs. Because of the play of the Oklahoma State defense, I’m going to suggest that they will find a way to stick around once again. Buy the 6.5 up to 7.5 for some breathing room and play the Cyclones as a home dog.
Also, the total currently sits at 62. Mason Rudolph should have plenty of opportunities to make plays against this 77th-ranked secondary. We also know that Iowa State should have plenty of scoring chances against this paultry Cowboy defense. With that in mind, I’m also going to suggest that my readers take the over 62. Hopefully, James Washington will be playing which should be good for 135 yards of offense and two scores by himself. But beware, six of the Cyclones nine games have gone under on the season. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Over is 5-2 in the Cowboys last 7 games overall.
The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Under is 4-0 in the Cyclones last 4 games overall.
Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
