The No. 5 Tigers of LSU (-14) are set to host the Ole Miss Rebels at Tiger Stadium. Kickoff for this pivotal conference game is set for 9:15 p.m. ET and ESPN is scheduled to broadcast the action. These teams met last year with the final result being a 40-24 victory for LSU.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Southeastern game, LSU is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to spend $600 to win $100 back on the Tigers (-600). The Rebels are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early, it would likely generate a reasonable betting scenario in-game.
The Rebels have gained 1.0 unit so far and are 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2. The surprising Tigers are up 5.3 units this season. They’re 2-2 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 2-2.
The Rebels are 3-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 4-0 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Rebels are coming off a resounding 38-17 victory over Kent State last week where Jordan Ta’amu completed 28-of-38 passes for 442 yards, two scores and one interception. Scottie Phillips (112 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. A.J. Brown (seven receptions, 96 yards) and DaMarkus Lodge (six catches, 81 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
LSU just earned a 38-21 win over Louisiana Tech. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Bulldogs to air it out for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Adrian Hardy was on a different level for Louisiana Tech, recording 181 yards and two touchdowns on 10 catches. For LSU, Joe Burrow completed 16-of-28 passes for 191 yards. Nick Brossette (78 rushing yards on 23 attempts, three TDs) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (136 yards on 20 carries, two TDs) mounted the running game as Dee Anderson (five receptions, 80 yards) and Foster Moreau (four catches, 33 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Ole Miss has run the ball on 51.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while LSU has a rush percentage of 60.8 percent. The Rebels have run for 175 yards per game and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tigers are putting up 170 rushing yards per game and have 10 total rush TDs.
The Rebels offensive scheme has averaged a ridiculous 348 yards through the air overall and has 10 passing scores so far. The Tigers have put up 183 pass yards per game and have three total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ole Miss has allowed 191 rush yards and 315 pass yards per game. The LSU D has allowed 244.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 91.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.47 to opponents, while the Rebels have allowed a 6.65 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ta’amu is already up to 1,226 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 71 percent of his 103 attempts with nine passing scores and only one interception. Ta’amu’s got a 12.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.23 over the past two outings.
Scottie Phillips (423 rushing yards, five rush TDs, 48 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), D.K. Metcalf (276 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and A.J. Brown (347 receiving yards, three TDs) have all played big roles recently.
Joe Burrow has managed to complete 37-of-72 passes for 482 yards, two TDs and zero INTs for LSU. His ANY/A stands at 6.45 for the season and 6.82 over his past two games.
We’re expecting the Tigers to control tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Dee Anderson (100 receiving yards this season) has contributed lately, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire (187 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Nick Brossette (340 rush yards, five rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Tigers’ recent offensive strategies.
NCAA Pick: Ole Miss Rebels vs. LSU Tigers
SU Winner – LSU, ATS Winner – LSU
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Trends
The LSU defense has produced 12 sacks on the year while Ole Miss has nine.
LSU has lost one fumble this season while the Ole Miss offense has let two get away.
The Rebels offense has created 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Tigers have accounted for two such plays.
The Ole Miss defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while LSU has given up two such plays.
The Ole Miss offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while LSU has created three such run.
The Rebels defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tigers have given up one such run.
LSU was favored by 19 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 51. The over cashed and LSU did not cover in the 38-21 victory over Louisiana Tech.
Over its last three contests, LSU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Ole Miss was favored by 29 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was 76.5. The under cashed and Ole Miss failed to cover in the 38-17 win over Kent State.
Ole Miss has averaged 4.63207547169811 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
LSU has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its last two.
+++++
