The No.1-seeded Oregon Ducks (30-6) play the No.4-seeded Duke Blue Devils (25-10) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament at Honda Center. Action starts at 9:55 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 24 and will air on TBS.
The Ducks played well in their last game, beating Saint Joseph’s 69-64 in the Second Round. Dillon Brooks was the game’s high scorer with 25 points on 7-for-13 shooting. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-64 win against Yale in the Second Round. Grayson Allen led the game in scoring with 29 points on 10-for-15 shooting.
Over the last five games, Elgin Cook has been playing at a high level for the Ducks. During that stretch, he has averaged 16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength, as the prolific offense of Oregon (25th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 114.4) takes on the elite defense of Duke (17th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 105.7). Also, the Blue Devils’s third-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 120.1) will face off against the seventh-ranked defense of the Ducks (defensive efficiency of 99.1).
The Ducks come into this game 30-6 Straight Up (SU) and 19-13-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The Ducks have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire nation, averaging 78.9 points per game. Oregon’s defense has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average points allowed per game rose to 75.4 during that span, compared to its 68.5 season average.
In the other locker room, the Blue Devils head into the game with records of 15-18-1 ATS and 25-10 SU. The Blue Devils rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 40th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.35. Switching gears to the Duke defense, teams don’t seem to hit many three-pointers against the Blue Devils, who are seventh in the country in terms of three-point field goals allowed at 216 this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Duke, ATS Winner – Duke
Notes
Duke is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 81.5 points per game (ranked 15th). Oregon allows 68.5 points per game (ranked 77th).
Duke averages 75.5 points per away game (ranked 40th). Oregon allows 66.7 points per home game (ranked 89th).
The Duke Blue Devils have the third-best offensive rating in the nation (120.1). The Oregon Ducks have a top-tier defense with a defensive rating of 99.1 (ranked seventh).
The Oregon Ducks average a field goal percentage of 46.8% this season. The Duke Blue Devils have a winning 8-5 record in games where opponents have a FG% of 46.8% or greater.
The Oregon Ducks rank higher based on their field goal percentage (45th) than their effective field goal percentage (59th). The Duke Blue Devils rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (37th) than their field goal percentage (67th).
Duke ranks 40th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.35. Oregon is ranked lower at 105th with an A/TO of 1.18.
The Duke Blue Devils rank 80th in offensive rebounds. The Oregon Ducks rank 223rd in the nation in defensive rebounds.
Though Duke is one of the best in the country in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TO% of 17.8% (ranked 13th), Oregon has an outstanding 13-2 record SU when it has a TO% of 17.8% or greater.
