The Pac-12’s top team will be on the road when the No. 9 Oregon Ducks (24-6) head to Galen Center to take on the USC Trojans (20-10). Action begins at 4:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 5 and can be seen on PAC.
The Trojans beat Oregon State 81-70 on Wednesday. Jordan McLaughlin was the team’s leading scorer with 17 points on 7-for-13 shooting. The Ducks, meanwhile, are coming off a 76-68 win against UCLA on Wednesday. Tyler Dorsey led the game in scoring with 20 points on 7-for-14 shooting.
Elgin Cook has been on fire for the Ducks, averaging 18.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 block, and 0.6 three-pointers over the past five games.
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Ducks won the first game 89-81. Cook had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 26 points, five rebounds, four assists, one steal, one block, and one three-pointer.
The Trojans have gone 20-10 Straight Up (SU) and 17-13 Against The Spread (ATS). The Trojans are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .388 from beyond the arc. The Trojans have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 36th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 39.7 per game, while the Ducks rank 197th in the nation with 35.7 per game. Turning to the defensive side, the Trojans have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .318.
As for their opponent, the Ducks head into the game with records of 15-11-1 ATS and 24-6 SU. The Oregon defense has allowed an average of 77.3 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 68.7. When it comes to defending the rim, the Ducks are one of the best in the nation with an average of 6.0 blocks per game.
The Ducks’ win over USC in their last clash brought their SU record in their most recent games to 10-0. Furthermore, Oregon leads the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Oregon held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last five meetings. USC never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Oregon, ATS Winner – Oregon
Notes
USC is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 81.2 points per game (ranked 16th). Oregon allows 68.7 points per game (ranked 86th).
Oregon has allowed an average of 72.1 points per away game this season. USC averages 84.1 points per home game, ranking 25th in scoring.
The USC Trojans rank 78th for their offensive rating of 110.4. The Oregon Ducks have a defensive rating of 99.2 (ranked 66th).
USC averages 73.5 possessions per game, scoring 1.104 points on each possession. While Oregon averages fewer possessions per game with 69.0, they score more points per possession with 1.130.
The USC Trojans average an effective field goal percentage of 52.2% this season. The Oregon Ducks have split their games this season (5-5) when opponents have an eFG% of 52.2% or greater.
The USC Trojans average 20.0 three point attempts per game, and the Oregon Ducks attempt 19.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; USC is 14-5 and Oregon is 13-5.
USC ranks 81st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.23. Oregon is ranked lower at 101st with an A/TO of 1.19.
USC, the 36th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.7 rebounds per game. Oregon does worse, ranked 197th with 35.7.
Oregon ranks 134th in offensive rebounds, while USC ranks at 31st in defensive rebounds.
On average, USC forces a turnover rate of 17.1%. When Oregon turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a superb 12-4 record.
