It will be a battle between Pac-12 opponents when the USC Trojans (19-10) welcome the Oregon State Beavers (17-10) to Galen Center. Action begins at 11:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Mar. 2 and will air on FS1.
The Trojans got blown out by California 87-65 on Sunday. Nikola Jovanovic was the game’s leading scorer with 21 points. The Beavers, meanwhile, are coming off a 69-49 win over Washington State on Sunday. Drew Eubanks played well, accumulating 13 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks.
Tres Tinkle has been on fire for the Beavers, averaging 18.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal, and 1.2 three-pointers over the past five games.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Beavers winning the first matchup 85-70. Gary Payton II played a huge role in the victory by recording a double-double with 22 points and 15 rebounds.
The Trojans have gone 19-10 Straight Up (SU) and 16-13 Against The Spread (ATS). The Trojans come into the game with the nation’s 22nd-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 84.3 points per game on their own court. The rebounding edge goes to the Trojans in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 39.8 boards per game. Crossing over to the defensive side of the court, the Trojans have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .316. An area where the Trojans are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.5 blocks per game, 11th in Division I.
As for their opponent, the Beavers have records of 14-12 ATS and 17-10 SU. Oregon State has been particularly bad ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 3-7. The Oregon State defense has allowed an average of 78.8 points per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 69.0.
Following the Beavers’ latest win over USC, their SU record against USC moves to 7-3 over their most recent meetings. Furthermore, Oregon State holds the advantage ATS with a record of 6-3-1. USC had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Oregon State has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – USC, ATS Winner – USC
Notes
USC is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 81.2 points per game (ranked 17th). Oregon State allows 69.0 points per game (ranked 96th).
In its last game, Oregon State won by a margin of 20 points. USC is 7-2 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Oregon State has a 4-1 record in blowouts.
The USC Trojans average 73.8 possessions and 1.100 points per possession in games this season. The Oregon State Beavers average fewer possessions with 67.6, as well as fewer points per possession with 1.060.
Oregon State has an average effective field goal percentage of 49.8%. USC is a losing 4-7 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, USC attempts 20.0 three pointers and Oregon State attempts 18.0. Both teams have winning records when they have 20 or more three point attempts. The USC Trojans sit at 13-5 and the Oregon State Beavers are 7-3.
USC ranks 93rd in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.20, while Oregon State ranks 99th with an A/TO of 1.19.
USC, the 37th-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 39.8 rebounds per game. Oregon State does worse, ranked 273rd with 34.5.
Oregon State ranks 164th in offensive rebounds, while USC ranks at 28th in defensive rebounds.
On average, USC forces a turnover rate of 17.2%. When Oregon State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 8-2 record.
