You never know what you’re going to get when you come to the ballpark every day. Take Sunday, when the Baltimore Orioles, the biggest underdog in the past 15 years at +420, knocked off the Houston Astros 8-7 on Rio Ruiz’s two-run, walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth.
According to BetLabSports.com, which keeps game-by-game odds dating to 2005, the next-highest MLB underdog to win in that stretch was the Washington Nationals, who beat the Minnesota Twins in 2007 at +390.
And remember, the Astros had beaten the Orioles 23-2 less than 24 hours earlier and had ace Justin Verlander on the mound Sunday.
Orioles walk-off to beat the Astros!
Biggest MLB moneyline upsets since 2005:
+406: Orioles (Today vs. Astros)
+395: Nationals (2007 at Twins)
+360: Royals (2018 at Yankees)
+351: Tigers (2018 at Astros) pic.twitter.com/uFkOs6ZYCw— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 11, 2019
A rare road mega-favorite
It’s not often that any team is a favorite of more than -400 in baseball, where the vagaries of the sport make each game more difficult to predict than football, basketball or soccer.
But it’s especially rare to see a road team be that big of a favorite. The Astros opened at -360 and closed at most sportsbooks at -460 and as high as -550 at others, according to ESPN.com. That’s the largest road favorite in BetLabs’ database.
The -460 price means betters would win just $100 for every $460 they wagered if the Astros won. On the contrary, Orioles bettors won $420 for every $100 they bet.
The high price did its job in keeping betters away from the Astros. ESPN reported that nearly all of the straight bets on the game were on the underdog Orioles, though the house made some of that money back because the Astros were included on several parlays (a multiple-game bet in which a better must win all to cash).
The Astros are as much as -550 favorites over the Orioles @stationcasinos sportsbooks. Consensus price is closer to -475. Regardless, ‘Stros are among the biggest favorites in an MLB game in decades. h/t @Pistol495
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) August 11, 2019
So how did it happen?
The Orioles scored first against Verlander, which always helps, but the Astros struck for three runs in the second. Still, Baltimore played hard a day after being embarrassed, and when the Orioles rallied for two runs in the fifth and another in the sixth, they led 5-3.
It was 5-4 in the ninth when disaster struck for Baltimore. With two runners on, Michael Brantley hit a sharp ground ball down the right-field line. It would have tied the game no matter what, but it turned into a three-run Little League home run when right fielder Anthony Santander’s throw hit the brick wall and bounced away from him. Brantley came all the way around to score to make it 7-5.
But still the Orioles didn’t quit. Chris Davis drove in a run with a sacrifice fly but was the second out. Then in stepped Ruiz, who crushed a 2-2 changeup from Roberto Osuna well over the right-field well toward the warehouse at Camden Yards for one of the most unlikely baseball victories you’ll ever see.
Bottom 9th. Two strikes. Two down.
But Rio Ruiz had ice in his veins. pic.twitter.com/NKNj8A4WIj— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) August 11, 2019
