The Boston Celtics (2-1) square off against the Orlando Magic (1-2) at TD Garden. The game can be seen on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, October 22, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points with Boston opening as a 12-point favorite.
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics Free Prediction
Although the Magic were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers in their last game, 116-115, they were able to cover as 12.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (231) came in over the O/U total of 217.5. Philadelphia’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Orlando. The 76ers had a rate of 9.2, while the Magic posted a mark of 12.3. With 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists, Nikola Vucevic led the way for Orlando with his zeroth triple-double of the year.
The last time the Celtics played, they won a close one over the New York Knicks, 103-101, but failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (204) came in under the O/U total of 210.5. The Celtics had a much better free throw rate (0.341 vs. 0.195) and had a better turnover percentage (13.5 vs. 13.9). Jayson Tatum was Boston’s leading scorer with 24 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Boston should have a considerable edge. Since the 2017-18 season, the Celtics defense ranks second in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.498), while the Orlando offense ranks 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.510).
The Magic have had records of 26-59 straight up (SU) and 35-49-1 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games including Orlando have had a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total since last season (51.8 percent).
On the other hand, the Celtics, have records of 57-28 SU and 52-49-2 ATS since last season. Vegas has been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Boston games over that same period with 50 unders compared to 47 overs.
The Celtics won three out of four games against the Magic last season. In the most recent game, Boston won 92-83. The Celtics made 21 of their 28 free throws (75.0 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.7 vs. 15.2).
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Boston is 43-7 and Orlando is 12-9.
The Celtics are 53-16 when they reach the century mark, while the Magic are 25-32.
Boston ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.3) while Orlando ranks 23rd (24.5).
The Celtics rank 10th in rebounds per game (44.1) while the Magic rank 29th in rebounds allowed per game (46.0).
Orlando ranks 11th in points in the paint per game (45.6) while Boston ranks 29th (40.0).
The Magic rank 12th in fast break points per game (12.5) while the Celtics rank 27th (9.6).
Boston ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.0) while Orlando ranks 17th (12.8).
The Celtics rank third in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Magic rank 16th (7.7).
Orlando ranks 21st in points off turnovers per game (15.6) while Boston ranks 25th (15.1).
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