Jon Jones will now be facing #6 light heavyweight Ovince St. Preux at UFC 197.
We got this news last week, but many questioned why OSP would be getting the chance to fight a man many claim to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. But veteran MMA fans know better than to count anybody out, and the same goes here. While Jones has had one marvelous performance after another instead the Octagon, none of that matters in a single, individual contest between men. Ovince St. Preux has some serious skills, some serious athleticism, and a serious capability of this fight on April 23rd.
I believe the odds have Jones as a -800 favorite. They’re very steep, but for good reason. On paper, Jones has taken out everybody in front of him not named ’12-6 elbows’. Meanwhile, St. Preux has dropped contests to Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira – both fighters Jones has beaten before. Not only that, but St. Preux was outclassed in both of those contests.
Against Bader, St. Preux had difficulties landing anything substantial on the feet, and was out-wrestled. Jones on the other hand absolutely had his way with Bader on the mat. Glover Teixeira out-wrestled and out-grappled St. Preux en route to a dominating third round submission victory as well. Jones however slugged it out with Teixeira and battered him for twenty-five minutes. On paper, Jones has this fight in the bag, but again – it’s not about odds, it’s about capabilities.
So let’s dive a little deeper and look at how their styles match up with one another. Jones is exceptional on the feet. He has a wide variety of weapons to use to maintain his massive reach, and keep him out of trouble. With that said, Jones doesn’t necessarily have one-punch stopping power. Instead, Jones finds the home for well-placed shots that slice and dice his opponent. Jon Jones almost always instinctively finds himself tieing up with his opponent though. For such a long and lanky guy like Jones, it may seem counter-productive to constantly lock up with shorter, stockier guys, but Jones dominates the fight there. Jones’s long frame allows him to apply leverage and over-power the stronger opponent. In addition, he can ravage his opponent with elbows, knees, and everything in between. This description doesn’t even include Jones’s takedowns, ground and pound, or submission game – all of which are lethal.
To put it bluntly – Jon Jones has the weapons to beat anybody anywhere.
So what does Ovince St. Preux bring to the table? Unpredictability. St. Preux is coming into this interim light heavyweight title fight on just three weeks notice which doesn’t leave Jones with very much time to figure him out. Instead, this should be a raw battle between two guys forced to adapt on the fly. Unfortunately for St. Preux, Jones has shown to be spectacular at this.
St. Preux does have some legitimate power in his hands though. The counter uppercut he hit Patrick Cummins with to knock him stiff was a thing of beauty. Also, St. Preux was able to KO a decorated striker in Shogun Rua with a counter check hook. Both of these shots were landed while moving back which tells me St. Preux has exceptional ability at distributing power, even in positions where power is supposed to be a non-issue.
This could be dangerous for Jones who has shown to be hittable in the past. Daniel Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson, and Glover Teixeira from time to time were able to land some decent volume on Jones. What Jon Jones brings to the table to counter this though is what many refer to as “good vision”. This means Jones is able to see punches coming, and react to them before they land. When Jones is trading in the pocket or in the clinch, he’s seeing and feeling punches coming, and moving with them. This makes Jones very hard to hit cleanly which has left fighters very frustrated at the fact that they can’t seem to inflict much damage against him.
With that said – there’s no way Cummins could have seen that uppercut coming from underneath and been able to react in time before it detonated on his chin. The more St. Preux can have Jones moving forward against him, the more likeliness there is that St. Preux can lead Jones into a big counter that he doesn’t see coming. And you know what they always say, “it’s always the punch that you don’t see.”
I fully expect the Greg Jackson camp to put together a gameplan for Jones that involves him taking very little risks. Why? Because they don’t have the adequate amount of time to prepare for a dangerous like OSP who has jumped in last minute and sparked the upset before. Against Vitor Belfort, another last minute replacement, Jones almost fully resorted to oblique kicks to the knee for his stand up offense. He didn’t mess around exchanging shots with Belfort; instead, he dragged him into deep waters, attacked his legs, and eventually just tried to get on top where he could overpower the smaller man. St. Preux has shown some questionable takedown defense in the past, as well as conditioning, so I fully expect Jones to drag this fight out as long as he can until he can put OSP on the mat. From there, look for Jones to tee off with elbows, and use his long frame to wrap up some sort of choke or arm lock just like he did against Belfort.
So what can OSP do to avoid this from happening? Stopping the fight from getting to that point is a good idea, but it may not happen. OSP may have to fight Jones for twenty-five minutes, and if that’s the case, you can expect Ovince to be very conservative with his energy early on. He also may not be in the best shape. This makes me believe that both Jones and OSP are going to be extremely conservative. The more Jones stands with OSP though, the more chance there is for OSP to land a big power shot.
I resort back to the question in the title – does OSP stand a chance against Jon Jones? And yes, he really does. Why? Because OSP has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past. While he definitely has some flaws in his overall mechanics and grappling, he’s a very lethal fighter on the offensive side of things. He’s a fantastic athlete who can cover distance quickly, and if he lands one of those sneaky check hooks or counter uppercuts on Jon Jones, he could very well pull off a big upset. On paper, OSP is as good as dead, but a fight is a fight, and honestly – anything can happen.
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