Two teams that split their season series 2-2 last year, the Ottawa Senators and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena. Fox Sports Sun will broadcast this Atlantic Division matchup, which gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 10.
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Tampa Bay (-310) is currently favored over Ottawa (+255) and the Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 7 goals. The odds for betting the total sit at -105 money on the over and -115 on the under.
Earning moneyline bettors 5.3 units, the Lightning are 12-4 straight up (SU) overall in the 2018-19 season. That win percentage, the NHL’s second-strongest so far in the early season, is an improvement compared to how the team performed during the 2017-18 season (54-28). Out of the team’s 16 regular season matches, eight of them have gone under the total, while seven have gone over and just one has pushed. The team’s 7-2 SU at home this year.
Tampa Bay’s converted on 23.7 percent of its power play opportunities this season, a mark that’s right around league average. On the other hand, its penalty kill is rated second overall, and it’s successfully killed off 90.2 percent of all penalties.
As a collective unit, Tampa has been whistled for penalties 4.1 times per game overall this season, 3.6 per game over its past five games total, and 4.0 per game over its last five home outings. The team’s had to kill penalties for just 8.6 minutes per game over its last 10 matchups, in total.
Averaging 29.5 saves per game with a .937 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (9-3-1) has been the best option in goal for the Lightning this year. If they, however, decide to rest him, head coach Jon Cooper could turn to Louis Domingue (3-1-1 record, .885 save percentage, 3.77 goals against average).
Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov will each lead the charge for the Lightning. Point (19 points) is up to nine goals and 10 assists and has recorded two or more points five times this year. Kucherov has seven goals and 11 assists to his name and has recorded a point in 10 contests.
Over on the visiting bench, Ottawa is 6-10 straight up (SU) and has lost 1.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year. A total of 12 of its contests have gone over the total, while two have gone under the total and just two have pushed. As the road team so far, Ottawa is 1-5 SU.
Ottawa has scored on 26.0 percent of its power play opportunities this year, a mark that places it in the top-10 among NHL teams. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 32nd overall and it’s successfully killed off 67.3 percent of all opponent power plays.
Ottawa’s players have been penalized 3.9 times per game in total this season, and 3.2 per game over their last five games. The team has been forced to defend opponent power plays just 7.0 minutes per game over their last five outings.
Craig Anderson (33.3 saves per game) has been the primary option in goal for Ottawa. Anderson owns a 6-9-3 record, and has registered a .907 save percentage and 3.67 goals against average this year.
For the visiting Senators, the offense will be heavily coordinated by Thomas Chabot (five goals, 17 assists) and Mark Stone (six goals, 13 assists).
Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Predictions
NHL Tip: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in four of Ottawa’s last five outings.
Ottawa has managed 26.4 shot attempts per game over its last five road games while Tampa Bay is averaging 36.0 shots per game over its last five home outings.
The Senators are 2-3 SU in games where they serve more penalty minutes than their opponent while the Lightning are 8-0 SU when they serve more minutes than their opponent.
Tampa Bay skaters have managed 9.6 takeaways per game over its last five home games, an improvement over its season average of 7.7 takeaways per game (ranked 14th).
Ottawa has created 6.2 takeaways per game over its last five road games, its season average of 6.8 takeaways per game (ranked 22nd in the NHL).
Tampa Bay could hold an advantage if this one comes down to the wire. The team’s 4-1 in games decided by one goal, while Ottawa is 1-3 in such games.
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