The Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators are set to square off in the Eastern Conference Final.
Pittsburgh managed to narrowly escape their series with the Washington Capitals with a dramatic victory in Game 7. Though the Penguins had taken a commanding 3-1 series lead, the Capitals came roaring back. Though the Caps dominated possession for 40 minutes in the final game, the Penguins shut things down in the third period to clinch the victory.
Ottawa surprised many by dispatching the New York Rangers in six games. The Senators staged multiple comebacks over the course of the series. They had a perfect record at home, which helped, and their penalty kill was stingy as ever. In Game 6, they grabbed an early lead and played keepaway with the puck.
Their contentment giving the opposing team rushes and hoping they do not break through the neutral zone trap can sometimes lead to breakaways, as it did twice in Game 6. The Rangers scored on two breakaways but could not muster a goal when set up in the offensive zone.
Given how dangerous the Pens are on the rush, the same may not go this time around.
The Penguins are looking to go back-to-back. The Sens are trying to change the ending in a potential 2007 Stanley Cup Final rematch and capture their first ever Stanley Cup. To do that, they will have to slay the dragon.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Penguins.
Really, this is a no contest. In terms of forward strength, no one in the final four teams beats the Pittsburgh Penguins. They are the league’s most dangerous offense, and they are currently the postseason’s most potent scoring team as well.
Evgeni Malkin leads all skaters in postseason scoring with 18 points and 13 assists. Jake Guentzel leads in goals with nine.
Last series, I had named Jake Guentzel the x-factor, saying he would need to have another great series against Washington to give the Penguins another weapon. And he did, scoring four goals against the Capitals.
This go around, it actually seems that Sidney Crosby may be the man in question.
On this day in 2009, the Penguins defeated the Capitals in the first playoff matchup between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin pic.twitter.com/tkP3XIEPar
— Mike Commito (@mikecommito) May 13, 2017
Crosby was diagnosed with a concussion after a nasty blow to the head by Matt Niskanen in Game 3. The Penguins wound up losing the game, but winning Game 4 without him in the lineup. When he returned, Crosby was not exactly himself.
Which is weird, because he had assists in Games 5, 6 and 7.
It’s something that can only be picked up on if you watch Crosby very closely. He is usually a dominator on the puck, a freight train through the zone able to split the defense at will. There was less of a desire to do that in the later games of the Washington series- that, or simply fewer opportunities.
Crosby has plenty of weapons, but his health is something to monitor in the series.
Conor Sheary was also concussed last round. He has been much less of an impact player this postseason, which is disappointing considering his successful regular season on the top line.
The Senators will need their very best out of their forwards. Even a half-healthy Sidney Crosby would be enough to shred them, and something tells me another four-goal game out of J.G. Pageau is not on the horizon to bail them out of a home loss.
Bobby Ryan had four goals against the Bruins in the opening round, two of them game-winners. He did not have a goal against the Rangers.
Mark Stone only has four goals and two assists through two rounds. It’s pretty clear that he is playing through some sort of hinderance, but it isn’t clear just yet. Either way, Stone is desperately needed. It’s all hands on deck.
Speaking of playing through hinderance…
Defense: advantage Senators.
Erik Karlsson! That is all.
Karlsson leads the Senators in scoring with 13 points. Surprise, surprise. Hairline fractures or no, he has been unbelievable this postseason. With the rest of his defensive core getting things together against the Rangers, the Sens have looked okay.
The problem is that the Cody Ceci-Dion Phaneuf pairing is a disaster waiting to happen. When the Rangers were able to dominate Games 3 and 4 at Madison Square Garden, those two were pretty abysmal. They were awful the entire series against Boston (even though Phaneuf amazingly had an overtime winner).
There is simply no way that they will be able to keep up with the Penguins’ elite core of forwards.
Problem is, the Penguins’ defensive core just got used, abused and spit out by the Washington Capitals. Ian Cole’s jock strap is hanging somewhere in the rafters of PPG Paints Arena. He holds a horrendous Corsi-for percentage at 43.7%, yet that is still the second-best on the team amongst defensemen. Ron Hainsey owns the worst Corsi-for of any defenseman on the team at 38.8%.
Trevor Daley, who missed much of the season with a knee injury, is doubtful for Game 1 with a lower-body injury. His mobility is clearly hampered. He missed Games 6 and 7 last round.
The Penguins survived the Capitals despite getting badly outshot because of their ability to capitalize on their high-danger chances. That is playing with fire, as evidenced by their performances in Games 5 and 6. They allow a boat load of high-danger chances.
No team has ever won a playoff series in which they were outshot every game. Until now.
Ottawa simply gets too much offense out of Erik Karlsson to not win this category. But if Pittsburgh is going to counter with anyone, it’s gotta be Justin Schultz. Schultz has two goals and six assists this postseason and has the best possession numbers of Pittsburgh defensemen.
Also, Ottawa might want to keep Marc Methot away from Sidney Crosby. That didn’t go so well last time.
Special teams: advantage Penguins.
Washington thoroughly dominated 5-on-5 play last round against Pittsburgh. But a few perfectly timed powerplay goals early in the series were enough to demoralize the Caps. The Pens were hardly perfect on the man advantage- they were 3-for-22 in the entire round. But those three goals came at backbreaking times.
Ottawa’s powerplay was toothless last round. For a team that has Erik Karlsson running the point and a bevy of forwards unafraid to get to the front of the net, they really did not get too many scary looks. And the New York Rangers are hardly stalwarts on the penalty kill.
The Sens scored a powerplay goal in Game 1, but were 0-for the series besides that. They had 18 total chances.
In terms of penalty killing, the Sens were highly successful, whereas the Pens were scattered. Ottawa allowed two powerplay goals, while the Penguins allowed five. Pittsburgh may also be without one of their best killers, Carl Hagelin, for the first few games of the series. His status is listed as doubtful for the opening game of the series.
I give the Penguins the nod here solely because of their personnel. Washington may have knocked the wind out of their sails, but it is very hard to keep these guys off the score sheet for long. Phil Kessel was oddly quiet on the powerplay in the Washington series. Odds are that changes this time around.
Where Ottawa can surprise people though is their ability to utilize their defensemen to draw the Pens out of position. Pittsburgh has a tendency to chase the puck carrier while on the kill. Elite defensemen, like P.K. Subban in Nashville or even Kevin Shattenkirk, have been drawing extra attackers to them up high, opening up space in the slot. Erik Karlsson could use this and exploit this.
The Senators scored six powerplay goals against the Penguins in three games this season. They allowed just one. While the Penguins hold the player advantage, the Sens may surprise a lot of people with just how effective they will be.
Goaltending: advantage Penguins.
If I can be blunt for a moment: it’s pretty hilarious that we have reached the point where the final four goaltenders in the Stanley Cup Playoffs are Marc-Andre Fleury, Craig Anderson, Pekka Rinne and John Gibson. Seriously, how many of these guys would crack Top 5 Goaltender lists prior to the season? Top 10?
Credit where credit is due, Marc-Andre Fleury has answered the call. Hockey is crazy sometimes. Matt Murray came out of nowhere last year to lead the Penguins to the Stanley Cup. The world bemoaned that this incredible run, while not unprecedented, could never have happened with Fleury in net. Quoth the Penguin: “Oh yeah?”
Fleury planted some seeds of doubt with a rocky middle of the series last round, but has looked remarkable otherwise. He notched a shutout in the decisive Game 7 on the road. Though he owns a 2.55 goals-against average, he has a stellar .927 save percentage.
Craig Anderson is very easy to root for. He’s easily going to win the Masterton Trophy this year. He’s led his team to the Eastern Conference Final when many wondered if they would even make it out of the first round.
His numbers aren’t perfect. He owns a .914 save percentage. His miscues playing the puck are innumerate. He somehow made a bigger fool of himself with the stick than his opponent last round, and he was going up against one of the worst stickhandling goalies in the league, Henrik Lundqvist.
Marc-Andre Fleury is no Martin Brodeur with the puck either.
Pittsburgh outscores their opponent pretty badly when given the chance. The Sens and Ducks are the only two teams remaining who are just a +1 in goal differential.
Anderson will only go as far as his defense will allow him. If Ottawa can somehow limit quality, he can do the rest. But since that’s unlikely, I give Fleury the edge in a toe-to-toe matchup.
And even in the event that Fleury falters, Matt Murray is reportedly back to full health and ready to play.
Bold Predictions
1) Ottawa will drop the gloves early to try and make a statement. Looking at you, Chris Neil.
2) Marc-Andre Fleury will record his 10th career postseason shutout.
3) Derick Brassard will lead the Senators in goal scoring.
4) The Sens will win at least one game in extra time.
This will be more of a fight than people believe, but the Penguins are still the better team. If they lost this round, it would be a major disappointment for their organization.
Prediction: Penguins in 6.
