The No. 5 Michigan State Spartans (20-3, 8-2 Big 10) welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-8, 5-5 Big 10) in a matchup that pits great offense against stifling defense. The game gets underway at 6:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 143.5 points with Michigan State opening as a 13-point favorite.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans ATS Prediction
The Nittany Lions will be hoping for similar success after topping the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in their last outing, 60-43. The Nittany Lions held the Scarlet Knights to an offensive rebounding percentage of 5.7 (below their season average of 34.3) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.353 (below their season average of 0.443). Penn State was lifted by Mike Watkins, who recorded 15 points and 19 rebounds.
The last time the Spartans played, they defeated the Maryland Terrapins, 74-68. Michigan State’s rebounding was their biggest strength. The Spartans had more offensive rebounds (19 vs. nine), defensive rebounds (27 vs. 20) and total rebounds (46 vs. 29). With 12 points and eight rebounds, Jaren Jackson Jr. played well for Michigan State.
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the prolific offense of Michigan State (sixth in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 121.2) takes on the top-notch defense of Penn State (27th in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 95.2).
Penn State heads into the contest with records of 15-8 straight up (SU) and 9-9-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nittany Lions’ 19 games with betting action, 11 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Michigan State owns records of 20-3 SU and 13-9-1 ATS. Of the Spartans’ 21 games that accepted bets, 11 have finished over the total.
Jackson Jr. has averaged 15.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.2 blocks over the last five games for Michigan State.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Spartans won the last game 78-51. Michigan State had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.579 vs. 0.327). Penn State, meanwhile, did an excellent job of converting from the free throw line (15-19; 78.9 percent).
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Penn State is 3-5-1 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Michigan State is 9-5 ATS with 8 overs, 3 unders and 1 push.
Penn State ranks 32nd in steals per game (7.8) while Michigan State ranks 222nd (4.5).
The Nittany Lions rank 29th in three pointers allowed per game (18.7) while the Spartans rank 163rd (22.5).
Michigan State ranks first in assists per game (20.5) while Penn State ranks 122nd (14.2).
The Spartans rank first in blocks per game (8.0) while the Nittany Lions rank 105th in blocks allowed per game (3.5).
Michigan State ranks fourth in rebounds per game (42.2) while Penn State ranks 106th (36.8).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Penn State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Michigan State is 2-2-1 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push over their last five games.
The Nittany Lions’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 9.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Spartans have scored an average of 78.8 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.4 points per game (4.2 above their season average).
