The No. 6-ranked Michigan State Spartans (23-5) finish out the regular season at Jack Breslin Student Events Center as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-13). Action starts at 12:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 28 and will air on BTN.
The Spartans easily got past Ohio State 81-62 in their last matchup. Bryn Forbes was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points on 9-for-14 shooting. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, are coming off a 56-55 win against Nebraska in their last outing. Shep Garner shot 8 for 16 and led in scoring with 22 points.
Over the last five games, Denzel Valentine has been playing at a high level for the Spartans. During that stretch, he has averaged 23.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 3.8 three-pointers.
Half-court execution will be at a premium as Michigan State ranks 273rd in the nation in possessions per game (67.1 possessions per game), while Penn State is 328th (65.2). Furthermore, the 279th-ranked offense of the Nittany Lions (offensive efficiency of 100.1) will face a tough test against the 17th-ranked defense of the Spartans (defensive efficiency of 94.8).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Spartans won the first game 92-65. Forbes was a top performer in the victory with 20 points, two rebounds, two assists, and six three-pointers.
The Spartans look to build on their records of 23-5 Straight Up (SU) and 18-9 Against The Spread (ATS). Michigan State has some room to improve after their below-average performances recently. In the last 10 games, Michigan State has only averaged 62.5 points per game compared to the 79.5 they’ve averaged on the season. The Spartans are one of the best in Division I in terms of three-point field goals, making 9.0 shots per game from beyond the arc. Michigan State has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 41.8 rebounds per game. Michigan State is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.71. As for the Michigan State defense, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Spartans, who allow only 63.5 points per game. Teams have to fight for open shots against the Spartans, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .372. The Spartans are the 26th-best team in the country at blocking shots, averaging 5.3 blocks per game.
On the other side, the Nittany Lions head into the game with records of 13-13-1 ATS and 15-13 SU. Penn State performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning an 8-2 record. The Nittany Lions have shown improvement on the offensive end over the most recent 10 game stretch. Over that span, Penn State is averaging 80.1 PPG, significantly more than their season average of 65.3. The Nittany Lions are one of the top defensive teams on the road, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 68.6 points allowed per away game.
Michigan State beat Penn State in their most recent meeting this season, moving its SU record against Penn State to 8-2 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Michigan State held the edge in all three of these categories four times in the last five meetings. Penn State never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – MSU, ATS Winner – MSU
Notes
“Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games “.
“Michigan State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan State’s last 6 games “.
“Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home”.
“Michigan State is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Michigan State’s last 10 games at home”.
“Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Penn State”.
“Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Penn State”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 6 games when playing Penn State”.
“Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State”.
The Michigan State Spartans hold a solid 10-5 SU record in matchups against Big Ten Conference rivals, while the Penn State Nittany Lions currently sit at 6-9 in these games.
Penn State scores an average of just 65.3 points per game (ranked 246th). Michigan State ranks 13th in points allowed, giving up 63.5 points per game.
Penn State scores just 60.4 points per away game (ranked 255th). Michigan State ranks 13th in points allowed at home, giving up 59.8 points.
In its last game, Penn State won by a margin of one point. Michigan State is 0-3 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Penn State has a 1-1 record in close games.
The Michigan State Spartans have a defensive rating of 94.8 (ranked 17th), while the Penn State Nittany Lions have an offensive rating of 100.1 (ranked 279th).
The Michigan State Spartans have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking 19th in the nation with a FG% of 48.4%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Penn State Nittany Lions have a losing 1-4 record.
On average, the Michigan State Spartans attempt 20.0 three point field goals per game and the Penn State Nittany Lions attempt 20.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Michigan State has an outstanding 17-2 record, while Penn State is 10-7.
The Michigan State Spartans rank third with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.71, while the Penn State Nittany Lions rank outside the top 100 (296th) with an A/TO of .86.
Ranked eighth in the nation, Michigan State averages 41.8 rebounds per game. Penn State ranks lower at 249th with 34.9 RPG.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation (ranked 177th), while the Michigan State Spartans are the best defensive rebounding team.
On average, Penn State forces a turnover rate of 18.0%. When Michigan State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a superb 13-2 record.
