The undefeated (4) Penn State Nittany Lions claw their way into Ryan Field to have at it with the Northwestern Wildcats in a BIG-10 Conference showdown. The battle of the cats is set to go down on Saturday, October 6th at 12:00 p.m. EST. It also can be viewed on ABC for your early game after Gameday on ESPN. Las Vegas has set the Nittany Lions as a -14.5 point favorite and the contest’s total at 53.5.
The Penn State Nittany Lions come into this game fresh off a 45-14 butt-kicking of the Indiana Hoosiers. In that match-up, Penn State used all three facets of the game to defeat Indiana. In other words, they scored on the ground, through the air, and with their special teams. It didn’t take long either, the Nittany Lions were up 28 to zip after the first quarter.
Northwestern returns home after a hard-fought loss to the Wisconsin Badgers 24-33. The score might not reflect it but this game was a defensive battle. Neither team managed to even reach 320 yards of offense and both were horrendous on third downs. The Badgers sealed the victory when they sacked the Northwestern in the end zone on their final drive. The Wildcats were down seven and had a chance to tie it up. As a result, they are .500 and will be fighting for their lives against a great Penn State football team.
(4) Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
The Penn State Nittany Lions are picking up some steam heading into this game against division rival Northwestern. After the thrilling last-second win at Iowa, the Lions looked solid in all three phases of the game against the Hoosiers. As of now, they are scoring just over 40 points per game and allowing only nine.
So far, quarterback Trace McSorley is running a well-oiled Penn State offense to perfection. Yes, there have been a few bumps along the way but overall, they’re one of the best in the nation. McSorley has completed 105 of 160 passes for 1,352 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. Let’s not forget, McSorley also runs the ball well. The dual-threat athlete has collected another 179 yards and three scores with his feet.
There is very little doubt as to who the big man on campus is these days. Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley is at it again in 2017 but this year he might even be better. Last week, the outstanding player scored on a kick-off return, ran for another, and also connected through the air for another. Altogether, Barkley has acquired 574 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He also is the Nittany Lions leading receiver with 27 catches for 386 yards and three scores.
When Saquon Barkley isn’t catching passes, two other wideouts are moving the chains for the Nittany Lions. DaeSean Hamilton and Juwan Johnson have combined for 38 catches for just under 600 yards and five scores. Penn State also has one of the nation’s top tight ends in 6’6 260 pounds senior Mike Gesicki. So far, Giesicki has caught 20 passes for 167 yards and four trips to the back of the end zone.
As I mentioned above, the Nittany Lion defense is holding opposing schools to only nine points per game. By the way, that statistic is good for 3rd in the country. Penn State’s secondary is especially stingy, allowing only 161 yards per game (19th). The front seven is pretty good too, giving up just under 130 yards per game on the ground (38th).
Northwestern Wildcats (2-2)
The Northwestern Wildcats are looking for a statement victory to get a game above a .500 mark. An upset of the Penn State Nittany Lions would be just that. The Northwestern Wildcats have won five of their last seven home games and have enough talent to play with anybody in the country.
Quarterback Clayton Thorson might not be quite as dynamic as Trace McSorley, but he is just as competitive. The Illinois native has tossed the rock around for 1,061 yards on 91 of 142 passes thrown. He has also connected on seven touchdowns and has served up five picks. Thorson has to limit the turnovers against a solid Nittany Lion secondary or this game is over before it even starts.
I’ll tell you what, Northwestern has quite the running back themselves. Tailback Justin Jackson continued to build on his illustrious BIG-10 career. Last week, he passed the Spartan’s Javon Ringer to move into 13th all-time in the conference. Jackson now sits at 4,402 career rushing yards and needs just 83 yards to overtake Damien Anderson as the program’s all-time leader. This year, he has 64 carries for 273 yards and four touchdowns.
Justin Jackson now sits at 4,402 career rushing yards and needs just 83 yards to overtake Damien Anderson as the program’s all-time leader. This year, he has 64 carries for 273 yards and four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he is questionable for this contest with a leg injury.
Three Northwestern wide receivers team-up to get the job done for the Wildcats through the air. Altogether, they have combined for 60 catches for over 600 yards and three touchdowns. Ben Skowronek leads the team with two touchdown grabs and 256 yards.
Defensively, the Wildcats are allowing 25 points (60th) and 384 yards per game (71st). Linebacker Paddy Fisher leads the Northwestern Wildcats with 37 tackles, Joe Gaziano has two sacks and corner Montre Hartage has one pick.
Prediction
This game has been one of the toughest for me to pick since writing on college football this year. Northwestern has the ability to win this football game and I like that factor when thinking of taking them as a dog. Also, I don’t think we’ve seen the Wildcats best football quite yet. Plus, they did have the Badgers on the ropes until caving in the waning moments of the fourth quarter last week.
The Penn State Nittany Lions really took it to Indiana last time out. It was a nice rebound from almost getting upset in Iowa. Well, they’re on the road once again and will need to play just like that or this one could be too close for comfort. We all know Saquon Barkley will be seeing a lot of touches.
Fortunately, Northwestern also knows this. I think their defense is better than the numbers suggest and I expect a superb performance from them this weekend. I certainly don’t think they’ll beat the Nittany Lions but I do like them with the +14.5 at home. I’m betting that Justin Jackson suits up and helps the offense score enough to cover. The over/under 53.5 is too risky for me to suggest playing it either way. The Wildcats lose another close one 27-20.
Trends
The Nittany Lions are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
The Nittany Lions are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Nittany Lions last five games overall.
The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games.
The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Under is 34-16-1 in the Wildcats last 51 home games.
The home team is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
