The Miami Heat (5-7) challenge the Philadelphia 76ers (8-6) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, November 12, 2018.
Miami opened as a 1-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223 points.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The 76ers failed to cover as 4.5-point underdogs in their 112-106 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last matchup. The game’s total points (218) came in over the projected point total of 211.5. Memphis’ 9.1 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Philadelphia, who had a rate of 20.0. The Grizzlies’ mark was better than their season average of 12.0, while the 76ers’ was above their season average of 13.7. Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons played well, finishing with 18 points, 14 rebounds and five assists.
In the Heat’s last matchup, they were beaten by the Washington Wizards, 116-110, despite being 3.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (226) finished just over the O/U total of 224. One of Washington’s biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 38 free throw attempts, while Miami had 26. With 15 points and 14 rebounds, Miami’s Hassan Whiteside had a good performance.
Miami might struggle to put up points as they clash against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Philadelphia ranks seventh in defensive efficiency while the Heat rank 20th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the 76ers, who rank third in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.252), will go head-to-head against the Heat, who rank 21st in opponents’ FTA rate (0.214).
Philadelphia holds records of 8-6 straight up (SU) and 5-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the 76ers are playing, as 57.1 percent of their games have ended over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 5-7 SU and 5-7 ATS. Coinciding with Philadelphia, Heat games also have a tendency to go over the total (75.0 percent).
After the 76ers won six out of nine meetings against the Heat last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Philadelphia won 104-91. The 76ers knocked down 29 of their 36 free throws (80.6 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.1 vs. 18.5).
76ers vs. Heat Betting Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS on the road with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Miami is 3-4 ATS at home with 5 overs and 2 unders.
Philadelphia is 3-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 2-0.
The Heat are 4-7 when they reach the century mark, while the 76ers are 8-4.
Philadelphia ranks third in blocks per game (6.5) while Miami ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (6.9).
The Heat rank fifth in second chance points per game (16.4) while the 76ers rank 20th (12.4).
Philadelphia ranks fourth in assists per game (26.3) while Miami ranks 18th (23.0).
The Heat rank 10th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while the 76ers rank 21st in three pointers allowed per game (32.6).
Miami averages 48.0 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Philadelphia ranks 15th in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
The 76ers average 15.8 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. The Heat rank 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.5).
Miami averages 46.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Philadelphia ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.4).
The 76ers average 16.2 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank eighth in fast break points allowed per game (12.1).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Philadelphia is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The 76ers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 0.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (1.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.4 points per game (0.2 below their season average).
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