The Miami Heat (1-2) square off with the Philadelphia 76ers (2-1) at AmericanAirlines Arena in game four of the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The game can be seen on TNT at 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 21, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 214.5 points with Philadelphia opening as a 3-point favorite.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Free Prediction
Simmons recorded 19 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in game three, in which the 76ers defeated the Heat 128-108, covering as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 236 points, which was 23 points above the projected point total of 213 points. The 76ers had a much better turnover percentage (9.3 vs. 14.5) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (16.7 vs. 12.5).
The offense of Miami will battle against the top-notch defense of Philadelphia. The Heat currently rank 20th in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers are third in defensive efficiency. The 76ers should have the advantage on that side of the ball. It will also be a tale of two styles as the up-tempo 76ers rank fourth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Heat rank 21st.
Philadelphia holds records of 54-31 straight up (SU) and 50-35 against the spread (ATS). 76ers games have finished over the total 50.6 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 45-40 SU and 42-39-4 ATS. Unlike Philadelphia, a little over half of Heat games have finished under the projected point total.
Marco Belinelli has averaged 17.8 points and 1.6 steals over the last five games for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Philadelphia is 22-21 ATS with 24 overs and 19 unders.
Miami is 17-23-2 ATS at home with 21 unders, 19 overs and 2 pushes.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 27-6 and Philadelphia is 22-0.
When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 33-20 and the 76ers are 51-19.
Philadelphia ranks fifth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Miami ranks 25th (11.1).
The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.4) while the 76ers rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
Philadelphia ranks first in rebounds per game (47.4) while Miami ranks 20th (43.4).
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.7) while the 76ers rank 27th (18.3).
Philadelphia ranks second in assists per game (27.1) while Miami ranks 16th (22.8).
The Heat rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the 76ers rank 25th (8.4).
Philadelphia ranks 17th in fast break points per game (11.4) while Miami ranks 27th (9.4).
The Heat rank ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.5) while the 76ers rank 17th in three pointers allowed per game (29.5).
Philadelphia ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.1) while Miami ranks eighth (43.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Philadelphia is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The 76ers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.0, up from 4.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (3.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 117.0 points per game (13.4 above their season average).
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