The Milwaukee Bucks (33-29) go head-to-head with the Philadelphia 76ers (34-27) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 4, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 208.5 points with Philadelphia set as a 1-point favorite.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
In the 76ers’ last matchup, they topped the Charlotte Hornets, 110-99. Philadelphia’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Charlotte. The 76ers had a rate of 17.9 (below their season average of 25.8), while the Hornets posted a mark of 15.2 (below their season average of 22.6). With 23 points on 8-for-19 shooting, Joel Embiid was Philadelphia’s high scorer.
The Bucks were beaten by the Indiana Pacers in their last outing, 103-96. Indiana’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Milwaukee. The Pacers had a rate of 0.482 (below their season average of 0.533), while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.438 (below their season average of 0.529). Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 24 points and 10 rebounds in the game.
The physical Milwaukee offense looks poised to dominate from the charity stripe. The Bucks rank third in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.229, while Philadelphia ranks 29th in FTA rate allowed (0.226). Ball protection could be troublesome for the 76ers. They rank 30th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.2 percent), while the Bucks force the fifth-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.7 percent).
Philadelphia holds records of 34-27 straight up (SU) and 35-26 against the spread (ATS). 76ers games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (50.8 percent).
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 33-29 SU and 26-31-5 ATS. Just over half of Bucks games have finished over the total.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Bucks won the most recent matchup 107-95, covering as 7-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 202 points, which was 6.5 points below the projected point total of 208.5 points. The Bucks’ 9.1 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the 76ers, who had a mark of 13.2. Antetokounmpo put up a double-double in the victory with 31 points and 18 rebounds.
Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Philadelphia is 15-17 ATS with 17 overs and 15 unders.
At home, Milwaukee is 10-19-3 ATS with 16 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Philadelphia is 15-0 and Milwaukee is 16-4.
When reaching the century mark, the Bucks are 27-15 and the 76ers are 31-17.
Philadelphia ranks first in rebounds per game (46.8) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (39.5).
The Bucks rank sixth in steals allowed per game (7.1) while the 76ers rank 28th (8.8).
Milwaukee averages 17.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Philadelphia ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.3).
The 76ers rank first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.0) while the Bucks rank 22nd (46.0).
Philadelphia ranks sixth in second chance points per game (13.7) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (10.3).
The Bucks rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the 76ers rank 23rd (5.3).
Philadelphia ranks third in assists per game (25.6) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (22.2).
The 76ers rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (28.8) while the Bucks rank 26th (24.6).
Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (8.7) while Philadelphia ranks sixth (10.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The 76ers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 106.0 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.4 points per game (7.1 above their season average).
