The Philadelphia 76ers turned a number of heads when they selected Duke center Jahlil Okafor with the third overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft despite the fact that they had already taken Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid in the first round of the previous two drafts. On top of that, there were talented players at bigger positions of need still on the board. After all, we’re talking about arguably the worst team in the league; they have so many holes to plug that they don’t have the luxury of burning three lottery picks on centers.
Leaving reality aside for a minute, it’s fairly clear that the 76ers front court has become a tough one to handicap for fantasy gurus. Is Joel Embiid healthy? What does this mean for Nerlens Noel? And how will this trio split time? Here’s the breakdown of the different scenarios.
Scenario 1: Noel Continues To Rise
There is no doubt that Noel is the most ready to contribute from a fantasy perspective in this group after he averaged 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.9 blocks in just over 30 minutes per game this season. Noel has looked like the type of center that could eventually dominate – especially given how he finished the season, posting 14.3 points per game, 11.2 rebounds and 2.8 blocks in April.
Noel took advantage of playing time with Embiid spending his rookie season working his way back from injury. Fantasy GM’s that own Noel in keeper leagues will obviously be concerned about his potential being hindered by the selection of Okafor and Embiid coming back, but this is probably not a realistic concern. Noel looks like the one certainty in this front court as he’s already a proven commodity, so he is who you want to own. The other two are still unproven wildcards.
Scenario 2: Okafor Leapfrogs Embiid
For all of the talk about what Embiid brings to the team, the bottom line is that he missed all of last season because of injury and the team’s selection of Okafor could be a testament to what they feel will be the result of Embiid’s injury issues. If the 76ers felt in any way that Embiid would not pan out, then it would actually make sense that they selected Okafor with the third overall pick. That’s not a wild hypothesis; we’ve already heard that Embiid might miss time in his second season as the foot injury has persisted. And we’ve heard head coach Brett Brown complain about Embiid’s shape and work ethic. It’s possible that Okafor is not a supplement but rather a replacement.
Okafor is a player who is deemed to be NBA ready. Unlike Dario Saric or some of the other 76ers recent draft picks, he’s not expected to be a project. And if he starts off playing well earning the minutes that Embiid was supposed to soak up, it’s possible that he never gives up the spot. At that point, Okafor and Noel will be the guys to own.
Scenario 3: Embiid Cuts Into Noel’s & Okafor’s Production
The consensus among fantasy experts is that Noel is the 76ers’ best option right now with Okafor having the higher long term upside ahead of Embiid but what if Embiid is in fact closer to contributing that they are letting on? That would be a worst-case scenario for fantasy players.
At this point, Noel is going to be the first guy drafted of this trio and anyone taking him is hoping he continues along his trajectory. And they’re also hoping that Embiid and Okafor stay out of his way. However, Embiid could very well end up missing a small chunk of the season, getting healthy and becoming a contributor early in 2016 similar to what happened with Noel. Remember, Noel missed his entire rookie season, came back and was a strong fantasy contributor at the start of 2015. Right now, this is the least likely scenario as Embiid isn’t healthy but as soon as he is, the Sixers won’t leave him on the bench. It’ll create a logjam as all three of these guys can’t play at the same time. At that point, you’ll want to avoid Okafor and Embiid until we know more, and only own Noel.
